By 2030, it is estimated that over 50 percent of the world’s extreme poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCSs). This expected increase of extreme poor located in FCSs has propelled the World Bank Group to incorporate strong commitments to addressing development challenges associated with Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) as part of its corporate goals.

People, Peace, Prosperity: Fighting Poverty in Fragile and Conflict Settings

To fulfill this commitment, the World Bank has recognized that it must do business differently. It has done this by providing conflict-affected countries with enhanced assistance through increased and diversified financing and by updating operational policies to enable countries experiencing emergencies to receive expedited assistance.

A multipronged approach to engage along the conflict spectrum has also been proposed in the World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020–2025. This includes four pillars:


The purpose of the evaluation is to examine the relationship among various modalities of World Bank engagement in situations of conflict and the achievement of development gains. The evaluation is designed to focus on:

  • how the World Bank is working differently in conflict-affected countries,
  • why engagement decisions are made in different contexts, and
  • what contributions the World Bank has made to development gains

The evaluation will focus on a set of countries that have (i) experienced medium or high-intensity conflict since 2014 per data obtained from both the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and (ii) been included on the World Bank’s List of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations. The definition of high and medium intensity is derived from the World Bank’s FCV strategy methodology.



Photo credit: Shutterstock/kafeinkolik, Syrian refugees are fleeing due to shelling in Latakia port city of Syria. Latakia, Syria, 15 February 2016. .

Conflict and COVID-19

The COVID-19 is affecting all countries. However, countries in situations of conflict are even more at risk, as violent conflict often exacerbates the spread of infectious diseases.

This evaluation is addressing the ongoing pandemic by:

  • Analyzing the World Bank’s real time support to client countries through a conflict lens;
  • Including pandemic-related questions in the evaluation’s semi-structured interviews and in the planned citizen engagement tool; and

Conducting research on the compounded effect of forced displacement resulting from COVID-19 on already conflict-affected communities within countries that are being assessed as part of the IEG evaluation.

Additional Resource:  View the keynote presentation by Dr. David Kilcullen President and CEOCordillera Applications Group, to the Aug 20 IEG Fragility Forum 2020 event When Conflict and COVID Collide: Towards a Risk Analysis Framework.


Lauren Kelly

Lead Evaluation Officer, Infrastructure and Sustainable Development, IEGFS

Lauren Kelly is a Lead Evaluation Officer in the Infrastructure and Sustainable Development Unit. more about Lauren


Daniel Nogueira-Budny

Public Sector Specialist, Economic Management and Country Programs

Daniel Nogueira-Budny is a Public Sector Specialist in IEG's Economic Management and Country Programs Unit. more about Daniel


ChristianFreymeyer.jpgChristian Freymeyer

Christian is a Research & Evaluation Consultant with the World Bank Engagements in Situations of Conflict team. Previously, Christian worked in several roles across the private and non-profit sectors, most recently as a Research Fellow at McLarty Associates, a strategic advisory consulting firm focused on private sector investment. He's also worked on supply chain sustainability for New Balance Athletics. Christian has a master's degree in Economics and International Development from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and served in the U.S. Peace Corps in Cameroon. more about Christian

Michelle.JPGMichelle Rebosio

Michelle is a Senior Social Development Consultant. Michelle’s work focuses on understanding how development and conflict dynamics interact, and to advise policy-makers, development institutions, and project teams on how to implement development activities in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Michelle has worked on all regions of the world and has lived in ten countries in four different regions. She holds a BA from Dartmouth College (Hanover, NH), an MA in Peace and Development Studies from Universitat Jaume I (Castellon, Spain), and an MPA from the Harvard Kennedy School (Cambridge, MA). more about Michelle

VDW.pngMees van der Werf

Mees is an Evaluation Consultant who, prior to joining the Bank, worked in India on community-based conflict management. Mees holds an M.A. in Conflict Management and Economics from Johns Hopkins University’s SAIS. more about Mees