The paper was prepared by the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) for international development specialists, with both evaluation professionals and energy sector practitioners in mind. It delves into issues of renewable energy investments and the strategic context for those investments. It remains, however, a methods-focused paper that also examines in detail the sector-specific evidence, describing the approach and process for designing and carrying out the Delphi experiment and the analysis of results and key conclusions drawn from the findings.

This paper was produced as part of the Methods Paper Series sponsored by the Independent Evaluation Group’s Methods Advisory Function. The authors are grateful for the feedback provided by the peer reviewers: Lauren Kelly and Ray Rist. In addition, the authors would like to thank the editors and staff of the Paper Series for their comments and contributions: Ariya Hagh, Sylvia Otieno, Maurya West Meiers, Jos Vaessen. A special thanks to Amanda O’Brien, Kristen Milhollin, Fernanda Macedo, and Luísa Ulhoa for their support in editing, production, and graphic design.

Although many people contributed to the Delphi exercise and the preparation of this paper, the findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the Bank Group or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent.