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The World Bank Group in Mozambique, Fiscal Years 2008–21

Chapter 6 | Resilience to Climate Change

Highlights

The World Bank contributed to the development of an institutional framework for strengthening climate resilience and improving disaster risk preparedness through strengthened hydrological and meteorological information services and increased financial protection against disasters.

World Bank support contributed to increased climate resilience in the transport, social protection, water and sanitation, agriculture, education, energy, and urban sectors.

The World Bank played an important role in identifying climate change as a major development challenge for Mozambique and making the case for climate-resilient policies. Before 2010, most of the government effort with respect to climate change was focused on response to and reconstruction after extreme weather events. Through technical assistance, the World Bank supported a policy dialogue that identified the need for increased climate resilience. This culminated in a 2010 study called Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change, which estimated the potential impacts of climate change on aggregate economic performance and found that, in the worst-case scenario, Mozambique’s GDP could fall between 4 percent and 14 percent relative to baseline growth between 2040 and 2050 if adaptation strategies were not implemented (World Bank 2010b). The study was crucial to not only demonstrate the impact of these events but also show the government that ex post reconstruction was not cost-effective and led to delays in response. The study successfully made the financial and fiscal case for increased climate resilience.

The World Bank contributed to the development and implementation of a strategy for building climate resilience. At the beginning of the evaluation period, the government lacked a strategy for building climate resilience. With support from the World Bank, the government prepared a Strategic Program for Climate Resilience, which established an ambitious three-pillar program of (i) policy and institutional reforms; (ii) pilot investments to enhance climate resilience in key sectors; and (iii) technical assistance for knowledge management, capacity building, and studies. To underpin the government’s approach, the World Bank delivered a mix of analytical work and investment and policy lending that contributed to (i) advancing a policy and institutional framework for climate resilience and (ii) strengthening climate resilience in key sectors (appendix G).

Institutional Framework

World Bank support contributed to the development of an institutional framework for addressing climate change in Mozambique. At the beginning of the evaluation period, there was no framework clarifying institutional mandates for coordinating efforts to enhance climate resilience. To address this shortcoming, the World Bank deployed the climate change DPO series (2013–16),1 which was the vehicle for implementing the policy reforms indicated in pillar I of Mozambique’s Strategic Program for Climate Resilience. More specifically, the DPO series sought to strengthen national policy and institutional frameworks for climate resilience by including prior actions that required (i) the enactment of a disaster management law; (ii) the approval of a National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy; (iii) the establishment of a climate change coordination unit; and (iv) the elaboration of a national monitoring and evaluation framework for climate change and disaster risk management. In 2018, IEG rated the overall outcome rating for the DPO series as satisfactory because, by the end of the series, a disaster management law had been approved. Local adaptation plans, which were part of the approved National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy, had been elaborated and were being monitored by the climate change coordination unit. In addition, the target of having 13 sectors reporting through the national monitoring and evaluation framework had been met. Finally, the government had integrated climate change into Mozambique’s Five-Year Plan (2015–19), which was approved by Parliament in April 2015 (World Bank 2019b).

World Bank support contributed to the establishment of a framework for increasing financial protection against disasters. For most of the evaluation period, an annual budget allocation for the annual contingency plan was the only ex ante financial instrument for disaster preparedness and response. This allocation was unpredictable and limited in size, adequate for responding only to small- to medium-size events. For emergency response to larger events and postdisaster recovery and reconstruction, the government relied on ex post instruments such as ad hoc budget reallocations and mobilization of donor support. Both were slow to materialize and insufficient to cover postdisaster recovery needs. To address this challenge, the government approved the creation of the national disaster management fund (DMF) called Fundo de Gestão de Calamidades in October 2017. With the World Bank–supported Mozambique Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program (2019–24), the government adopted comprehensive regulations to govern the operations of the DMF. The program also supported the DMF’s recurrent capitalization. As of December 2021, the Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program was making moderately satisfactory progress to achieve its objectives and had contributed to the DMF beyond its annual $10 million capitalization target, with $14.6 million and $9 million from the government and the World Bank, respectively (World Bank 2021e). The program had also strengthened the government’s capacity to enable the placement of a sovereign parametric catastrophe insurance product. As a first step, the World Bank supported the preparation of a National Disaster Risk Financing Strategy, which detailed the strategic priorities of the Ministry of Economy and Finance for financing disaster response. In June 2022, the strategy was approved by the Council of Ministers, and a contract of insurance coverage against cyclone winds was expected to be signed in 2022 (World Bank 2021e).

World Bank support contributed to strengthening hydrological and meteorological information services needed for disaster risk preparedness. In 2011, the Strategic Program for Climate Resilience identified Mozambique’s hydrometeorological system as requiring urgent improvement. To address this need, the climate change DPO series (2013–15) included prior actions to (i) advance the approval of the National Meteorological Institute’s strategic and organizational structure; (ii) set up three regional meteorological centers to create regional forecasts; and (iii) establish procedures for the management and exchange of weather and hydrological data between the National Meteorology Institute (INAM) and the National Directorate of Water Resources Management (DNGRH). In parallel, the Transforming Hydro-Meteorological Services Project (2013–19), which was given an overall outcome rating of moderately satisfactory by IEG, strengthened the core hydrometeorological network by increasing the share of real-time reporting from hydrological monitoring stations. Although considerable progress has been made, a recent World Bank report scored the maturity level of INAM and DNGRH as only meeting an essential level (World Bank 2021n).

Although progress has been made, Mozambique’s disaster preparedness still faces considerable challenges. The Transforming Hydro-Meteorological Services Project fell short of delivering flood forecasts to target populations (World Bank 2021g). At the local level, timely distribution of this information to intended beneficiaries was a major challenge, as the capacity of local committees for disaster risk management was very low. At the national level, there were collaboration gaps between the National Institute of Disaster Management, INAM, and DNGRH. To address these challenges, the Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program (2019–24) included disbursement-linked indicators for creating and strengthening local committees for disaster risk management and addressing coordination issues. According to the most recent monitoring report, the creation and strengthening of local committees for disaster risk management was progressing as planned, albeit with some delays while coordination issues were addressed through the elaboration of a memorandum of understanding between the National Institute of Disaster Management, INAM, and DNGRH (World Bank 2021e).2 World Bank staff assessed the project as making moderately satisfactory progress toward achieving its objectives.

Building Climate Resilience in Sectors

Beyond advancing the national policy and institutional framework for climate resilience, the World Bank supported strengthening climate resilience in key sectors. The FY12–16 CPS recognized climate change mitigation and adaptation as a new and important business line. It supported a range of projects in water resources development, roads and bridges management and maintenance, cities and climate change, social protection, and public works. The conservation of natural ecosystems and biodiversity was also included as a building block toward better resilience in the face of natural disasters and livelihood vulnerability. The FY17–21 CPF included support for improving water resources management and planning, investing in climate-resilient measures at the local level, improving the management and protection of coastal zones, and integrating climate risk assessments into planning and infrastructure development. The World Bank’s experience with these sector-focused interventions highlights a few cross-cutting insights on (i) the importance of allowing for innovative solutions beyond conventional approaches; (ii) the challenges of building sustainable institutional capacity; and (iii) the importance of engaging with development partners.

Moving beyond Conventional Approaches

Building resilience in the urban sector required nature-based innovative solutions to control floods. The Cities and Climate Change Project (2012–20) piloted the implementation of innovative nature-based (green) solutions for reducing floods and erosion, which ended up costing far less than the traditional (physical infrastructure–based) solutions. These are interventions that harness the ability of natural or nature-based features—such as bioswales, wetlands, and mangroves—to meet development goals such as the reduction of natural hazards, while simultaneously providing environmental, economic, and social benefits. This is the case of the World Bank’s support to Beira, the city in Mozambique most threatened by climate change because of its exposed coastal location (low-lying land and high tidal range) and its vulnerable infrastructure and population. In Beira, the Cities and Climate Change Project (2012–20) developed and financed drainage plans that included both rehabilitation of drainage canals and the implementation of natural drainage improvements. As a result, the project exceeded its target of 1,140 hectares with reduced flooding or erosion and 667,000 people benefiting from improved urban living conditions.

These investments paid off during two extreme rainfalls in early 2019. Areas that benefited from drainage rehabilitation under the project suffered little to no flood damage compared with other areas. IEG rated the project’s overall outcome as satisfactory (World Bank 2021a), but its sustainability remains contingent on the continued commitment of a municipal government that does not have a sufficient dedicated revenue stream to finance the operation and maintenance of the drainage and green infrastructure. Support for Beira’s drainage rehabilitation continues through the Cyclone Idai and Kenneth Emergency Recovery and Resilience Project (2019–24), which is also addressing key gaps in Beira’s coastal protection system. World Bank staff reported that the project was making satisfactory progress toward the achievement of its objectives as of October 2021 (World Bank 2021d). Beira represents one of the first nature-based urban flood management interventions supported by the World Bank. This experience provided several lessons related to flexibility in design, preservation of habitat, and appropriate operation and maintenance of green infrastructures (box 6.1).

Box 6.1. Early Lessons from Nature-Based Flood Protection in Beira

The nature-based solutions piloted in Beira serve as an important source of experience and lessons. Early lessons highlight the importance of the following:

  • Flexibility: Nature-based solutions may present a larger variety of options and nonstandard practices. In an urban context, subjective preferences such as aesthetics are also relevant. Adaptation of project components may come up more frequently during the feasibility and design phases, requiring unconventional solutions contrary to traditional engineering measures. A certain degree of unpredictability may have to be accepted. All of this requires flexibility and close and regular communication between the main stakeholders involved.
  • Habitat preservation: Clear guidance has to be provided to the construction company and supervisors to prioritize the preservation of the habitat, with flexibility in regard to some of the provided construction targets. The use of heavy equipment in particular might need to be limited in favor of manual labor.
  • Environmentally sound operation and maintenance: Operation and maintenance of green infrastructures should be done by a competent entity. Especially in an urban context, the management of public green spaces requires funding and expertise. The operation must ensure good environmental management practices, with regular ecosystem monitoring.

Source: World Bank 2020l.

Climate-resilient urban projects are piloting risk mapping. The ongoing Maputo Urban Transformation Project is supporting the implementation of green infrastructure with a citywide structuring plan that is piloting the use of risk mapping to address the serious challenge of improving the risk resilience of the large share of the population living in informal settlements located in flood-prone areas. As in Beira, many of Maputo’s and other coastal cities’ neighborhoods have grown in an unplanned manner and can be characterized by high population densities, inadequate residential areas and infrastructure, lack of adequate water supplies and waste- and stormwater drainage systems, and high poverty rates, which make them particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events. The World Bank, with the ongoing National Urban Development and Decentralization Project, is working with 22 municipalities—out of 53 in Mozambique—to strengthen their capacities and prepare urban development plans and guidelines, including a manual to incorporate climate resilience in urban planning. These plans and guidelines have been subject to some delays due to local capacity challenges and staff shortages, as well as the extensive review and validation process required from national authorities.

The transport sector piloted innovative approaches to mitigate floods, such as risk maps and a geospatial climate resilience tool. The 2010 report Mozambique—Making Transport Climate Resilient was the World Bank’s first report that focused on building resilience at the sector level (World Bank 2010c). It provided a detailed assessment of the impact of climate change on roads infrastructure and of different adaptation options. It concluded with specific recommendations on the need to review and revise road-related design parameters, guidelines, and manuals to reflect climate change adaptation requirements, reduce the risk of total failure and consequential damage, and ensure that an appropriate maintenance strategy is implemented. The report’s recommendations were gradually piloted and implemented through the Roads and Bridges Management and Maintenance Program—Phase II, which originally started as a traditional project to help improve the maintenance, rehabilitation, and upgrading of the road network. In response to recurring disasters, however, the additional finance project included components to prepare more resilient designs and construction standards for roads, pilots of the improved road designs, and the development of improved local arrangements for the roads’ maintenance.

An important innovation was that, contrary to conventional engineering, it proved more cost-effective not to raise roads high above the flood lines but to allow the water to flow over the roads, rather than damming up behind them. This has some trade-offs in terms of short-term road connectivity, but it brings cost savings in the long term. Based on the project’s experience, the World Bank issued a brochure called “Road Water Management for Resilience in Mozambique” (World Bank Group et al., n.d.), which indicated that although water can be an important cause of damage to roads, roads are in turn a major cause of local flooding, waterlogging, and erosion. However, such problems can be turned around by designing roads to become instruments for climate change resilience and water management by routing water to storage ponds or recharge areas that help retain water in dry riverbeds and ensure systematic spreading of floodwater. Similarly, the Integrated Feeder Road Development Project is piloting a geospatial climate resilience tool to guide the repair of climate-affected roads. The project is focused on road access in rural areas in support of the livelihoods of local communities and an immediate response to crises. Although progress to date has been satisfactory, the sector is facing a long-term challenge with the sustainability of maintenance funding, which has been inadequate because of the continuing budgetary shortfalls.

Building Sustainable Institutional Climate-Resilient Capacity

Building climate resilience in Mozambique requires strengthening the country’s hydrological and meteorological services. As highlighted in the government’s 2011 Strategic Program for Climate Resilience, developing an effective integrated hydrological, meteorological, and early-warning system was one of the key interventions needed to reduce climate risk. The World Bank supported this priority with multiple projects. The 2011 Programmatic Support to Disaster Risk Management Phase I Project focused on studies of reinforcing the hydro-climatological network and improving the weather radar network. The 2013 Climate Resilience: Transforming Hydro-Meteorological Services Project aimed at strengthening hydrological and meteorological information services by providing reliable and timely climate information to local communities. As a complementary intervention, the 2013 Climate Change Development Policy Operations I and II included prior actions for the strengthening of INAM, including the provision of daily forecasts to farmers and fishermen. However, the achievements were modest: while the daily meteorological forecasts were available to all (through daily web-portal updates, radio and television reports, or Short Message Service broadcasts), they were not yet effectively delivered to farmers and fishermen. A major challenge was the large share (about 35 percent) of poor, isolated farmers who do not have a radio or phone, which made them difficult for even local community leaders to reach.

Notwithstanding consistent World Bank support, the hydrometeorological services and early-warning system is a work in progress. Although the World Bank has consistently supported the strengthening of hydrometeorological services and early-warning systems through multiple projects over the past decade, some improvements were achieved, but the system is still a work in progress. A 2021 stocktaking report noted that INAM’s capacity in terms of dissemination of early warnings for extreme weather has improved significantly (World Bank 2021m), but the maturity of INAM’s and DNGRH’s basic observation and monitoring networks was at only 32 percent and 53 percent, respectively. These scores suggest that the hydrometeorological system’s ability to adequately mitigate the country’s climate risks is at less than half of what it should be, mainly due to limitations in capacity and funding for operations and maintenance. To address these specific challenges and limitations, the ongoing Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program (2019–24) included several relevant disbursement-linked indicators related to funding, local capacity, and the establishment of an early-warning system (box 6.2). The latest Implementation Status and Results Report (December 2021) rated the overall implementation progress of this program as moderately unsatisfactory.

The experience with the hydrometeorological services and early-warning system illustrates that the two main challenges in building sustainable institutional capacity in Mozambique are implementation capacity and financial sustainability. A major challenge in Mozambique is the capacity limitations of implementing agencies, due to inadequate training and budgets, low wages, and high staff turnover. The unanimous and most keenly felt request emerging from IEG’s interviews with government counterparts relates to the need for greater attention and support for the transfer of knowledge and skills from project-funded consultants and project implementation units to the agencies’ regular staff. This was seen not only as a matter of funding but also as a need for greater attention to the involvement of regular agency staff at all stages and levels of project preparation and implementation to ensure their institutional memory and “learning by doing,” not just at the handover stage. In addition, a continuing challenge relates to the sustainability of funding for the operation and maintenance of infrastructure. Thus, although the quality and performance of the hydrometeorological system had been greatly improved over the past decade, it has recently deteriorated because of inadequate funding, mainly due to the economic fallout from the hidden debt crisis, the impact of the tropical cyclones in 2019, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program (2019–24) is addressing this challenge by supporting funding for the DMF, which has been progressing well. But the specific contribution to the hydrometeorological and early-warning systems remains to be seen, depending on the details in the memorandums of understanding between the National Institute of Disaster Management, INAM, and DNGRH that are under preparation.

Box 6.2. Disbursement-Linked Indicators Included in the Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program

Disbursement-linked indicator (DLI) 1, for the operationalization and funding of the disaster management fund, involved the commitment of 0.1 percent of the annual state budget to the fund. As of mid-2021, this DLI had been progressing well, with more than $23 million having been funded, against a target of $10 million. However, since the disaster management fund is managed by the National Institute of Disaster Management, the extent to which these funds may be used to support the early-warning system (jointly managed by the Mozambique National Meteorology Institute and the National Directorate of Water Resources Management) is not clear.

DLI 3 was for the creation and strengthening of functional local disaster risk management committees, a key instrument for managing and reaching the affected population in case of disaster. As of mid-2021, progress in this activity was delayed due to unresolved and ongoing discussions about the role and structure of the committees, which a consultant was working to resolve.

DLI 4 was for the establishment of integrated information and early-warning systems, working from a 2018 baseline of “no functional integrated flood and cyclone early-warning system.” As of mid-2021, the development of relevant memorandums of understanding between the National Institute of Disaster Management, Mozambique National Meteorology Institute, and National Directorate of Water Resources Management was underway and expected to be ready by early 2022.

Source: World Bank 2021j.

Working with Development Partners to Adopt Resilient Standards and Design

In the education sector, the World Bank has been promoting a “safer schools” program with the involvement of the government and the donors. In Mozambique, improving resilience in schools is critical because their structural weaknesses and exposure to disasters resulted in approximately 550 classrooms being destroyed each year by cyclones and floods. Since about 2010, the World Bank initiated a “safer schools” dialogue and program that included risk assessments and the development of structurally resilient school building designs and standards in collaboration with UN-Habitat. The World Bank was able to promote these new standards through the Education Sector Support Fund (Fundo de Apoio ao Sector de Educação [FASE]) that pools all donors’ financial assistance, which the World Bank helped establish and where it remains closely engaged as the supervising entity to reduce donor concerns about corruption risks.

The effectiveness of resilient school construction techniques was demonstrated during Cyclones Idai and Kenneth. The 2015 Emergency Resilient Recovery Project was initially designed to support the piloting of new resilient construction techniques and standards for the rehabilitation of 433 damaged conventional classrooms and the construction of 1,038 new, nonconventional (self-constructed by the communities) classrooms. The classrooms were designed to withstand the locally mapped cyclone winds and ground shaking and include rainwater-harvesting systems. Due to significant increases in the construction costs, the final project targets were reduced to the rehabilitation of 372 conventional classrooms and the construction of 257 nonconventional classrooms. This approach received a major boost when the pilot “resilient schools” were not damaged by Cyclones Idai and Kenneth. The World Bank is currently supporting education infrastructure with the ongoing Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program (2019–24), which includes disbursement indicators linked to the climate resilience of education infrastructure.3

The education sector’s experience with the implementation of building resiliency standards points to two key enabling factors for success: pooled funds and work quality. The World Bank has had mixed experiences with pooled funds arrangements in Mozambique, which have been created in several sectors as a common platform for donor funding and project implementation. This approach worked well for the education sector, where the World Bank was a leader in the establishment of FASE with eight donor partners and remained involved as the supervising entity with oversight over fiduciary matters and safeguards—which helped reduce donor concerns about corruption risks. The close relationships from working together with donors on FASE also helped expand the implementation of resiliency standards to all newly constructed schools. In the transport sector, to the contrary, a similar pooled funds arrangement had to be dismantled because many donors insisted on requiring their own policies (for example, procurement, environment, and social) to be followed, leading to extensive delays in project implementation. In addition, the quality of the World Bank’s education program and the program’s ownership by the government enabled the World Bank to play a leadership role with donor partners, given the World Bank’s role as the supervising entity of FASE, its provision of training and support, and its fiduciary role, which gave trust to the other donors and reduced the perception of governance risks.

A review of the extent to which lessons from the evaluated climate resilience portfolio informed World Bank support of downstream projects suggests that the Implementation Completion and Results Report and the Implementation Completion and Results Report Review processes constitute a major pillar of the World Bank’s learning process. About half of the lessons identified in Implementation Completion and Results Report Reviews from upstream projects were referenced in the design of downstream projects. For example, at the national policy and institutions level, the 2014 Climate Change DPO II incorporated the three lessons from the earlier 2013 Climate Change DPO I in terms of strengthening intersectoral coordination, mainstreaming climate resilience into sector strategies, and incorporating strategic and targeted technical assistance. Another example was the Forest Investment Project, which drew on lessons reflected from the earlier Mozambique Conservation Areas for Biodiversity and Development Project, which highlighted the appropriateness of landscape approaches for ensuring compatibility of conservation and livelihood efforts and the need to engage local communities and address land tenure security.

This review also found that a few important lessons had been learned from experience with upstream projects, in addition to those recorded in the Implementation Completion and Results Reports and the Implementation Completion and Results Report Reviews. For example, the Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program specifically refers to the experience of the upstream Transforming Hydro-Meteorological Services Project when it recognizes that institutional coordination and information dissemination are more important than equipment for the effectiveness of early-warning systems. IEG had also identified this lesson through interviews with project teams. Similarly, the program documents for the Integrated Feeder Road Development Project referenced the earlier Roads and Bridges Management and Maintenance Program, finding that traditional road-planning approaches do not account for the benefits of building climate resilience and often lead to suboptimal investment decisions. Again, based on IEG interviews, this learning was directly and effectively transmitted within and between project teams. Overall, about two-thirds of the lessons reflected in downstream project designs were derived from the upstream projects and experience, and the remainder came through other channels, such as within and between project teams and from the World Bank’s broader experience.

  1. The climate change DPO series was implemented between 2012 and 2016 and originally included three series. DPO series 1 and 2 were disbursed between 2013 and 2015 on the completion of policy and institutional reforms carried out by the government between 2012 and 2013 and between 2013 and 2015. Additional reforms were implemented between 2015 and 2016 for the DPO series 3, which was dropped by the end of 2016 because of the cancellation of budget support after the disclosure of the hidden debts.
  2. The memorandum of understanding between the National Institute of Disaster Management, Mozambique National Meteorology Institute, and National Directorate of Water Resources Management was elevated to a regulation through Decree n.27/2022, which adopted the regulations for the operationalization of the integrated platform for the dissemination and communication of flood and cyclones early-warning information to end users, including the local committees for disaster risk management.
  3. With support from the Mozambique Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program, the government enacted a Ministerial Diploma (n.122/2021) adopting technical norms for climate-resilient education infrastructure in October 2021. These norms are guiding the resilient reconstruction of 3,000 classrooms under the project.