This paper illustrates how qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) was used to identify causal pathways for scaling up renewable energy to meet the sustainable development and climate goals. The analysis was a part of a multimethod evaluation that was carried out to assess the World Bank Group’s performance in supporting the development of renewable energy (RE) from 2000 to 2017. The evaluation explored the World Bank Group’s role in helping clients achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the targets in the Paris Agreement on climate change. QCA was used to validate the theory of change developed for the RE evaluation and identify pathways for scaling up RE as a key solution.

The paper was prepared for international development professionals, with both evaluation specialists and energy sector practitioners in mind. It delves into issues of RE investments and the strategic context for those investments. It remains, however, a methods-focused paper that also examines in detail the approach and process for designing and carrying out the QCA and the analysis of results and key conclusions drawn from the findings. The QCA presented an opportunity to synergistically bring together energy sector and development specialists together with methods experts, which was essential to designing, conducting, and analyzing results from the methodological application. This approach was vital to developing robust conclusions that could be triangulated with other methods in the RE evaluation. Ultimately, the QCA findings, together with results from other methods, helped validate the theory of change developed for the RE evaluation and helped identify three pathways through which six key challenges to scaling up RE (precondition barriers) can be overcome so that the clean energy transition can be successfully achieved.