Move from a predominantly project-by project approach which lacks the scale and speed to achieve universal access by 2030 in low-access countries-to a far greater use of a sector-wide organizing framework and process for mainstreaming the sustained engagement needed for implementing rapid access scale-up.
The scope and timing of the sector-wide frameworks and engagement plans should be led and coordinated by the government, and take into account the starting sector context and readiness. The core principles and strategic drivers underlying the best practice programs should inform the new strategic framework and country plans, and the Bank Group's operational engagement going forward. These are: systematic implementation of national electricity access, enabling sector policies and regulation, commercial viability of service providers, affordability of connections costs for the poor, and overarching government commitment and leadership.
Achieving universal access in low-access countries over the next 15 years will require the implementation rate for new connections to increase from the average annual rate of 2.0 million during 2000-2010 to about 14.6 million per year for the next 15 years. The investment needs for this effort together with refurbishing existing assets are estimated at $37.1 billion per year, which is more than ten times the current average annual investment financing which averaged $3.6 billion over the period 2000-2014 from all sources (multilateral banks and donors together with government counterpart funding and the private sector), including $1.5 billion per year from the Bank Group. The Bank Group's present project- and transaction based approach alone does not add up to meeting SE4All universal access targets. The Bank Group's own experience with scaling up shows that timely and efficient achievement of universal access requires a sector-wide least-cost nationwide access rollout plan, as well as a programmatic framework for mobilizing investment financing that has the potential to be sustained for at least two decades.
WB: Agree. The principle of sector-wide planning is anchored in the 2013 WBG Energy Sector Directions Paper, which articulates WBG's commitment to support a long-term approach with sector-wide planning, where appropriate.
In countries where the CPFs identify energy access as a priority, the Bank will engage in a dialogue to start moving from the project-by-project approach to programmatic and sector-wide planning, taking into account country priorities, starting conditions and capacities. Management will however remain flexible in applying different approaches (e.g., sector-wide framework and engagement, a specific targeted project, a WBG joint project, etc.) to suit the given context.
Action 2: EEX GP increases support to client countries to develop programmatic Investment Prospectuses to scale-up energy access.
Indicators: Percentage of countries in which Investment Prospectuses prepared. The process to develop these Prospectuses involves planning out the interventions needed to substantially scale up energy access over a 3 to 5 year time frame, estimation of the investment funding requirements for each of these interventions, and identification of potential sources of financing. This will be a collaborative process between the country governments and development partners, providing a platform to align public, private, bilateral and multilateral funds toward common goals set by the government.
Baseline: 2 (Rwanda 2009, Myanmar 2014)
Target: Investment prospectus development in 100% of low electricity access countries for which: i) this approach is agreed with Government and Country Management as the most appropriate and ii) trust fund resources are available to prepare the prospectus.
Timeline: FY19
IEG notes that the Nigeria prospectus has been completed since the last update.
The 2016 update indicated that prospectuses were being supported in Myanmar, Guinea, Senegal, Nigeria, Burundi, Liberia, Mozambique, and that the first two (Myanmar, Guinea) were completed. As of FY17, the Nigeria prospectus has been completed. Work is ongoing in the remainder countries.
Guinea: The Additional Finance for the Guinea Power Sector Recovery Project ($25 million) is scheduled for Board delivery on 25 Jan 18 with a 'B' probability rating. In addition, a WAPP-APL4 (Phase 1): Cô te d'Ivoire Liberia Sierra Leone and Guinea Regional Interconnector- Additional Financing, is scheduled for Board delivery on 15 Nov 2017 with an 'A' probability rating.
Myanmar: On the National Electrification Project: Both Grid Extension and Off-Grid Components have made notable progress since the last implementation status report. The Grid Extension Component has picked up pace after a lull first year of implementation. Three packages (transformers, concrete poles and steel poles) with a total estimated cost of US$ 46 million are under bid evaluation bidding documents for another three packages (conductors, insulators and steel parts) of a total estimated cost of US$ 60 million and RFP for the project implementation advisor consulting firm of an estimated cost of US$ 6.5 million have been finalized and are bid out.
On the Off-Grid Component, installation of 145,000 solar home/public systems and 2,100 street lights under the first supply and installation contract (ICB I) commenced in mid-May 2017 and are expected to complete in September 2017. The second SHS tender (ICB II) of approximately 95,000 solar home and public systems and 5,000 street lights is under bid evaluation. Eight solar mini-grids serving about 1,500 households are under construction and expected to be commissioned in August 2017.
IEG notes that ESMAP's SE4All TA is targeting seven low access countries that are focusing on electricity access. It is also noted that an investment prospectus has been completed for Myanmar, drafts have been prepared for Guinea and Senegal, and that drafts are due for two provinces of Nigeria by December 2016. Myanmar's investment prospectus and the related IDA operation and additional financing was acknowledged for FY2015 in the IEG sector evaluation. The delay in funding from donors for prospectuses is also noted.
IEG looks forward to reviewing incremental progress in respect of this action in the coming year, in the next MAR.
As part of the World Bank Group's commitment to SE4ALL, ESMAP' SE4ALL Technical Assistance Program is supporting 11 countries and one regional trade initiative to develop the policy frameworks, improve planning processes, strengthen the institutions, and mobilize the financing necessary to expand and accelerate their national energy access programs. Seven countries are focusing on electricity access (Myanmar, Guinea, Senegal, Nigeria, Burundi, Liberia, Mozambique) and four countries are focusing on access to modern cooking solutions. The final result of this exercise is usually an investment prospectus that is used for mobilizing the necessary public and private funding for the implementation of the investment program identified through the SE4ALL TA activity.
For electricity access, Investment Prospectuses has been now completed for Myanmar and Guinea. In Myanmar, the National Electrification Plan (NEP) for universal access, designed through SE4ALL TA, is now being implemented through a $400 million IDA operation and additional $200 million of concessional financing. In Guinea, funding for implementation of the prospectus is being mobilized. In Senegal, all technical work has been completed and Investment Prospectus drafted and is under a review. In Nigeria, geospatial planning for two provinces (Kano and Kaduna, covering 20% of Nigerian population) has been completed and Investment Prospectus is to be finalized by December 2016. For the remaining countries, it is expected that the work will be finalized in FY17.
The ESMAP business plan has requested donor support for 5-7 additional prospectuses. While donors responded favorably to the ESMAP business plan, to date their funding has been slower than expected. Funding for additional prospectuses has not yet been received.