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Mozambique - ProMaputo, Maputo Municipal Development Program (MMDP I and II)

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Ratings for the ProMaputo, Maputo Municipal Development Program I were as follows: outcome was moderately satisfactory, risk to development outcome was substantial, M&E quality was substantial, Bank performance was satisfactory, Borrower performance was satisfactory. Ratings for the Maputo Municipal Development Program II Show MoreRatings for the ProMaputo, Maputo Municipal Development Program I were as follows: outcome was moderately satisfactory, risk to development outcome was substantial, M&E quality was substantial, Bank performance was satisfactory, Borrower performance was satisfactory. Ratings for the Maputo Municipal Development Program II (MMDP II) were as follows: outcome was moderately satisfactory, risk to development outcome was substantial, M&E quality was substantial, Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Lessons for these projects include: (i) In low-capacity settings, where cities are barely able to meet service delivery needs, it may be necessary to deliver critical services while incrementally building municipal capacity for sustained service delivery over time. (ii) Interventions in land administration require a thorough analysis of the local, institutional, and political economy conditions. (iii) Excessive reliance on external expertise can undermine knowledge transfer and ultimately sustainability in municipal development projects. (iv) Achieving outcomes in solid waste management in low-capacity contexts requires a viable financial plan and mechanisms for capital and recurrent expenditures which may include contributions from national and local governments, private partnerships, and user fees. (v) Although achieving universal access to solid waste management is a significant achievement in low-capacity contexts, outcomes are undermined if investment in waste disposal is insufficient, especially for the most vulnerable. (vi) Land use transformation brought about by infrastructure investments can contribute positively to the local tax base, but it can also negatively affect poorer residents when land and housing prices rise.

Lebanon - Cultural Heritage and Urban Development Project

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Ratings for the Cultural Heritage and Urban Development Project are as follows: Outcome was moderately satisfactory, Risk to development outcome was substantial, Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Lessons from the project include: (i) Assigning economic values Show MoreRatings for the Cultural Heritage and Urban Development Project are as follows: Outcome was moderately satisfactory, Risk to development outcome was substantial, Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Lessons from the project include: (i) Assigning economic values of cultural heritage requires consideration of both its “use” and “non-use” values. (ii) Urban rehabilitation projects designed to expand public space require ex-ante and intermittent analysis of the risks associated with local economic displacement, due to restricted access and the changing preferences of upgraded space. (iii) Infrastructure-led urban rehabilitation of economically dense and culturally sensitive urban cores requires complementary investments in “soft skills” to ensure effective two-way communication about project aspirations and to adapt to citizen concerns. (iv) Cultural heritage and sustainable tourism investments must be designed to respect residents’ needs and aspirations and to protect communities’ residential right from unintended consequences.

Peru - Decentralized Subnational Roads Management Project

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Ratings for the Regional Transport Infrastructure Decentralization Project are as follows: Outcome was moderately unsatisfactory, Risk to development outcome was significant, Bank performance was moderately unsatisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately unsatisfactory. Ratings for the Decentralized Rural Transport Show MoreRatings for the Regional Transport Infrastructure Decentralization Project are as follows: Outcome was moderately unsatisfactory, Risk to development outcome was significant, Bank performance was moderately unsatisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately unsatisfactory. Ratings for the Decentralized Rural Transport Project are as follows: Outcome was satisfactory, Risk to development outcome was significant, and Bank performance was satisfactory, and Borrower performance was satisfactory. Lessons from these projects include: (i) Subnational governments need to own their road planning instruments to ensure their use. (ii) Ways to sustain the community-based microenterprises model for rural road maintenance need to be found. (iii) Road maintenance is essential all year round, and funding and bidding schedules need to be adjusted accordingly. (iv) Poverty impacts of rural roads projects are difficult to attribute. (v) f the road agency carries out activities that are outside its core responsibilities, it needs to involve the other ministries and government agencies that are responsible for these activities to ensure sustainability. (vi) Transferring successful solutions from one government level to another requires a careful contextual analysis and the subnational governments’ participation in decision making from the outset.

Uruguay - Noncommunicable Diseases Prevention Project

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Ratings for the Noncommunicable Disease Prevention Project are as follows: Outcome was moderately satisfactory, Risk to Development Outcome was substantial, Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Four lessons emerged: i) Preventing NCDs requires a multidimensional Show MoreRatings for the Noncommunicable Disease Prevention Project are as follows: Outcome was moderately satisfactory, Risk to Development Outcome was substantial, Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Four lessons emerged: i) Preventing NCDs requires a multidimensional approach that goes beyond strengthening the role of MSP and health services. ii) Projects implemented during important reform processes must take into consideration the timing of the reform and adjust project expectations and ambitions accordingly. (iii) Projects with a strong focus on capacity building need to be more realistic about what can be achieved within the project lifetime. (iv) Innovative projects like the PPENT should devote more attention to capture learning from implementation.

Bangladesh and Nepal - strengthening regional cooperation for wildlife protection in Asia

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Ratings for the Strengthening Regional Cooperation for Wildlife Protection in Asia are as follows: Outcome is satisfactory, Risk to outcome is moderate, World Bank performance is moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance is moderately satisfactory. IEG’s review of the SRCWP’s experience suggests the following lessons Show MoreRatings for the Strengthening Regional Cooperation for Wildlife Protection in Asia are as follows: Outcome is satisfactory, Risk to outcome is moderate, World Bank performance is moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance is moderately satisfactory. IEG’s review of the SRCWP’s experience suggests the following lessons: (i) Given their design and implementation challenges, regional projects focusing on global public goods require adequate preparation time to conduct a thorough analysis of participant capacities and commitments. (ii) Regional projects aiming to pilot new approaches to collaboration on transboundary wildlife management and illegal wildlife trade require a carefully designed results framework. (iii) Regional projects designed to build institutions and capacity for collaboration on transboundary wildlife management and illegal wildlife trade require a long-term investment to ensure success in achieving results.

The World Bank’s Role in and Use of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (Approach Paper)

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Interest is high on the World Bank’s role in and use of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF) in light of the sharp rise in debt stress among low-income countries and a changing global risk landscape in the years leading up to and resulting from the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). Since 2015, the number of IDA-eligible countries at high risk of or in debt distress has Show MoreInterest is high on the World Bank’s role in and use of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF) in light of the sharp rise in debt stress among low-income countries and a changing global risk landscape in the years leading up to and resulting from the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). Since 2015, the number of IDA-eligible countries at high risk of or in debt distress has more than doubled. As the key instrument to assess the debt sustainability of IDA eligible countries, the LIC-DSF is intended to guide the World Bank’s advice and support to these countries. This evaluation seeks to assess how the World Bank contributes to the LIC-DSF, how it uses LIC-DSF output in various corporate and country-level decisions, and how it can better leverage the LIC-DSF to address debt vulnerabilities in LICs. In doing so, it will seek to identify opportunities for the World Bank to strengthen its role in the preparation and use of the LIC-DSF in a changing global context and to highlight potentially important questions that may need to be addressed in the upcoming joint review, including the extent to which the LIC-DSF meets IDA’s needs in serving its clients. Recommendations from this evaluation will focus on aspects of the LIC-DSF that are within the World Bank’s ability to change or influence.

Unlocking the potential of the private sector in conflict-affected situations

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Photo: Small Store, Sana'a, Yemen, Credit: Rod Waddington.
Up to two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor will live in conflict-affected situations (FCS) by 2030, according to World Bank Group (WBG) estimates. Advancing development outcomes in FCS is therefore central to the WBG’s mission, and the private sector is key to increasing economic growth and breaking the cycles of violence and fragility. The 2011 World Development Report: Conflict Security and Show MoreUp to two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor will live in conflict-affected situations (FCS) by 2030, according to World Bank Group (WBG) estimates. Advancing development outcomes in FCS is therefore central to the WBG’s mission, and the private sector is key to increasing economic growth and breaking the cycles of violence and fragility. The 2011 World Development Report: Conflict Security and Development, and the WBG’s first Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) strategy (2020-2025) have both highlighted the critical role of the private sector in its approach to FCS. The private sector can create jobs, provide livelihoods and services, and contribute to sustainable development across multiple sectors. However, despite its potential for impact, the private sector in FCS is often informal, constrained, distorted, and may involve actors that are part of the conflict. With a focus on unlocking this potential, supporting private investments in FCS has been a strategic priority for both the Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) for over a decade. Both institutions have committed to scaling up their activities in FCS significantly. IFC has committed to delivering 40% of its business volume in International Development Association (IDA) and FCS countries, and 15–20% in low-income IDA and IDA FCS countries by 2030. MIGA has committed to increasing the share of the volume of guarantees issued to projects in FCS and IDA countries to 30– 33% by fiscal year 2023. What has been learned from past support for private investments in FCS? A recent IEG evaluation assesses IFC’s and MIGA’s support for private investments and their development impact on FCS and identifies key constraining factors and possible trade-offs that investors, practitioners, and policymakers should consider. The evaluation finds that while both IFC and MIGA have gradually deployed new approaches and instruments in FCS, they have not exhibited an upward trend sufficient to achieve the targets. This is in part the result of private businesses often being limited by insecurity, the lack of basic infrastructure—such as electricity—, weak governance and corruption, and lack of access to finance and land. These factors translate into financial and non-financial risks that deter private investors away from FCS and constrain the pipeline of bankable projects for IFC and MIGA to support.  Evidence shows that many private investments supported by IFC and MIGA in FCS have been effective, despite the heightened risks in fragile contexts. Evaluated IFC-supported private sector investments during the 2010-2021 period performed just below investments in non-FCS environments, driven by the strong performance of projects in infrastructure, larger FCS economies, and with repeat IFC clients. And, in many instances, successful investments showed effects well beyond the projects, such as the development of local markets.  Concentrated in traditionally well performing sectors, such as infrastructure, evaluated MIGA guarantees in FCS environments outperformed those in non-FCS. Another factor contributing to the high ratings was working with sophisticated international companies that tend to be better capitalized and have more diversified revenue sources compared to local firms (which MIGA cannot generally support). Leveraging this performance with increasing activities in FCS remains a challenge. Under the IFC 3.0 strategy, IFC has deployed tools to support its engagement in FCS and tackle constraints to private investments in FCS. These include the blending of private and public funds to mitigate financial risks in high-risk environments, efforts to scale up upstream market creation activities to develop bankable projects, instruments to strengthen country diagnostics to better understand the intrinsic market characteristics of every country to address them more effectively, and adjusting its measuring and monitoring framework to better account for development impacts. While some of these recent instruments could bear fruit in the future, it is yet too early to assess their impact. Early assessment of a new tool: the IDA Private Sector Window The World Bank Group’s fund for the world’s poorest countries, IDA, launched the Private Sector Window (PSW), now the WBG’s most prominent blended finance instrument. The PSW uses non-commercial, development funds to mobilize private investments in underserved sectors and markets in FCS countries. An early IEG assessment shows that while the PSW allowed IFC and MIGA to support some projects in new markets and sectors, its usage was below expectations as the financial risk mitigation offered by the PSW is only one of the factors deterring private investments in high-risk countries.  The private sector in low-income and fragile countries needs more than credit.  A shortage of bankable projects that meet the IFC’s and MIGA’s standards, more so than the availability of finance, limits scaling up business in fragile contexts. Addressing this constraint warrants further shifts towards efforts to develop projects and warrants changes in the institutions’ business models.  Factors and Trade-Offs to Consider in Scaling Up Investments in FCS This is where efforts to scale up upstream market creation activities come into play and where trade-offs need to be considered. Recognizing the difficult landscape in FCS, IFC and MIGA should continue to review their financial risk and implications in their portfolio approach to ensure that their risk tolerance, acceptance of higher costs, and longer project gestation periods align with their strategic intentions.  IFC and MIGA should also recalibrate further their approaches, client engagements and instruments in FCS to enhance the pipeline of bankable projects. They should take full advantage of their toolboxes to build capacity among less experienced clients and seek to expand their client base beyond those meeting IFC and MIGA standards and policies to include smaller, local, and regional firms.  Close coordination between IFC, MIGA, and the World Bank could enhance their effectiveness in addressing weak governance, uncertainty, underdeveloped regulatory regimes, poorly functioning institutions, and other non-financial risks limiting private investments. It is also important to recognize the heterogeneity in country characteristics and pursue differentiated strategies based on country-specific conflict analyses and diagnostics of opportunities and constraints for private investments. Furthermore, IFC and MIGA should identify metrics and targets specifically for FCS countries to focus their efforts and track progress in implementing the Bank Group’s FCV strategy. These lessons emerging from IEG’s evaluation can guide the institutions as they advance in their commitments and unlock the full potential of the private sector.  Pictured above: Small Store, Sana'a, Yemen. Photo Credit: Rod Waddington.

Guidance Manual for Evaluators: ICR Reviews for Development Policy Financing (DPOs)

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This manual provides guidance to evaluators preparing ICRRs on ICRs for development policy finance operations. It provides guidance for, and gives examples of, how to structure ICRRs with respect to content, presentation, and ratings. It also provides guidance on the preparation of ICRRs for development policy finance operations in fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) situations to better Show MoreThis manual provides guidance to evaluators preparing ICRRs on ICRs for development policy finance operations. It provides guidance for, and gives examples of, how to structure ICRRs with respect to content, presentation, and ratings. It also provides guidance on the preparation of ICRRs for development policy finance operations in fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) situations to better reflect their particular characteristics and realities and make the ICRR a better tool for learning.

About IEG

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About IEG
The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluates the development effectiveness of the World Bank Group. Our work provides evaluative evidence to help the World Bank Group deliver better services and results to its clients. We do so by generating lessons from past experience and accountability to shareholders and stakeholders at large. IEG is independent of the Management of the Show MoreThe Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluates the development effectiveness of the World Bank Group. Our work provides evaluative evidence to help the World Bank Group deliver better services and results to its clients. We do so by generating lessons from past experience and accountability to shareholders and stakeholders at large. IEG is independent of the Management of the World Bank Group and reports directly to the Executive Board. 
July 12, 2016

Poverty Mapping: Innovative Approaches to Creating Poverty Maps with New Data Sources

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Rio de Janeiro downtown and favela, Brazil. Photo: Skreidzeleu, Shutterstock
This guide provides an overview of the use of both traditional and novel data sources in generating poverty maps and the related methodological implications. This guide provides an overview of the use of both traditional and novel data sources in generating poverty maps and the related methodological implications.