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Topic:Macroeconomics
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Ukraine: First and Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan (PPAR)

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This Project Performance Assessment Report evaluates a programmatic series of two development policy loans (DPLs) to Ukraine of $500 million each that were provided as part of an urgent international effort to assist the country when Ukraine’s financial sector teetered on the edge of collapse in 2014. A perfect storm had affected the financial system when the geopolitical situation had descended Show MoreThis Project Performance Assessment Report evaluates a programmatic series of two development policy loans (DPLs) to Ukraine of $500 million each that were provided as part of an urgent international effort to assist the country when Ukraine’s financial sector teetered on the edge of collapse in 2014. A perfect storm had affected the financial system when the geopolitical situation had descended into deep crisis arising from the Euromaidan political upheaval, the Russian Federation’s annexation of Crimea, and the armed separatist movement in the eastern part of the country that initiated open, armed conflict that at times resembled a full-scale war. The exchange rate virtually halved between the end of 2013 (Hrv 8.13 to 1 U.S. dollar) and the end of 2014 (Hrv 15.8 to 1 U.S. dollar), inflation accelerated to 24 percent, the public sector fiscal deficit exceeded 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and public debt—including guarantees—spiked to 70 percent of GDP. Ratings for the First and Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan are as follows: Outcome was satisfactory, Risk to development outcome was high, Bank performance was satisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Lessons from the projects include: (i) Close coordination among donors is critical for DPLs to maximize the effectiveness of a jointly designed reform program. (ii) The design of DPLs needs to focus on all relevant issues, potential weaknesses, and gaps in reform measures. (iii) The presence of task teams in the field can be a critical factor in promoting financial sector reform. (iv) Weak public understanding of financial sector reforms indicates a need to expand outreach efforts to enhance political sustainability. (v) Sustainable reform is difficult to achieve in countries that have corrupt power structures and court systems. Under such circumstances, it is an open question whether World Bank assistance risks providing additional resources for rent seeking rather than support for reforms.

Philippines CLR Review FY15-19

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The Philippine economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade. However, performance on poverty reduction, inequality and human development has been persistently low. The country is also a natural disaster hotspot, with frequent typhoons, tropical storms and earthquakes. It has also been affected by internal unrest, predominantly the protracted conflict and violence on the southern island Show MoreThe Philippine economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade. However, performance on poverty reduction, inequality and human development has been persistently low. The country is also a natural disaster hotspot, with frequent typhoons, tropical storms and earthquakes. It has also been affected by internal unrest, predominantly the protracted conflict and violence on the southern island of Mindanao. The 2014 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) was well aligned with the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2011-16 that aimed at reducing poverty and improving the lives of the poorest segments of the population. The subsequent PDP 2017-22 shifted some emphasis to major infrastructure investments – where the WBG has not been particularly active – but also seeks to lift about six million citizens from poverty, achieve upper-middle income status by 2022, and to deliver a comprehensive agenda for peace and development in conflict-affected areas. The WBG program as adjusted in the 2017 PLR was therefore well aligned with significant aspects of the current PDP. The CPS set out a program that was divided in five focus areas: Transparent and Accountable Government; Empowerment of the Poor and the Vulnerable; Rapid, Inclusive and Sustained Economic Growth; Climate Change, Environment, and Disaster Risk Management; and Peace, Institution-Building, and Social and Economic Opportunity – all these areas were of high priority for the country and under the PDP.

China CLR Review FY13-17

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China, with a population of 1.4 billion, is an upper middle-income country with a GNI per capita of $8,690 in 2017. During 2013-2017, the economy grew annually at 7.1 percent on average, slower than the previous CPS period of 11.0 percent. A long period of economic growth put pressure on the environment and raised serious sustainability challenges. China is now contributing around 30 percent to Show MoreChina, with a population of 1.4 billion, is an upper middle-income country with a GNI per capita of $8,690 in 2017. During 2013-2017, the economy grew annually at 7.1 percent on average, slower than the previous CPS period of 11.0 percent. A long period of economic growth put pressure on the environment and raised serious sustainability challenges. China is now contributing around 30 percent to the world’s GHG emissions, partly because it is the largest consumer of carbon for electricity. Significant gains in poverty reduction continued during the CPS period. Absolute poverty, measured at $1.90 per day (2011 PPP), dropped from 1.9 percent in 2013 to 0.5 percent in 2018. Poverty and vulnerability in China are concentrated in rural areas and lagging regions in Central and Western China. The welfare of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution has increased steadily. The Gini coefficient dropped to .46 in 2015 after having risen to a high of .5 in 2008. China’s Human Capital Index (HCI) stands at 0.67 and ranks 45th amongst 158 countries. The CPS had two focus areas: (i) supporting greener growth; and (ii) promoting more inclusive development as well as a cross-cutting theme of advancing mutually beneficial relations with the world.

Building ownership, consensus, and credibility during economic stabilization: Lessons from Jamaica

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Building ownership, consensus, and credibility during economic stabilization: Lessons from Jamaica
This brief captures the lessons from evaluating a World Bank budget support program implemented in Jamaica—the Economic Stabilization and Foundations for Growth Development Policy Loan (DPL).This brief captures the lessons from evaluating a World Bank budget support program implemented in Jamaica—the Economic Stabilization and Foundations for Growth Development Policy Loan (DPL).

Guatemala: Enhanced Fiscal and Financial Management for Greater Opportunities DPL Series (PPAR)

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This Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) evaluates a series of two development policy loans (DPLs) to Guatemala: Fiscal Space for Greater Opportunities ($200 million, P131763), and Enhanced Fiscal and Financial Management for Greater Opportunities ($340 million, P133738). The assessment aims to verify whether the operation achieved its intended outcomes, to understand what worked well Show MoreThis Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) evaluates a series of two development policy loans (DPLs) to Guatemala: Fiscal Space for Greater Opportunities ($200 million, P131763), and Enhanced Fiscal and Financial Management for Greater Opportunities ($340 million, P133738). The assessment aims to verify whether the operation achieved its intended outcomes, to understand what worked well and what did not, and to draw lessons for the future. The objectives of the series were to (i) strengthen tax administration and tax policy, (ii) strengthen budget management and increase the results orientation of public spending, and (iii) improve the management and coordination of social policies. Ratings are as follows: Outcome was moderately satisfactory, Risk to development outcome was high, Bank performance was moderately unsatisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately unsatisfactory. This Project Performance Assessment Report offers the following lessons: (i) Tax administration and tax policy reforms in the face of major governance issues and long-standing opposition from influential interest groups are unlikely to be successful, even if backed by the World Bank’s analytical support, policy dialogue, and financing. Under these conditions, directly and indirectly targeting the governance issues over a longer period is necessary. (ii) Achieving progress on results budgeting requires strengthening of capacity, political commitment, sound monitoring and evaluation indicators, and cross-agency collaboration. (iii) Achieving results in policy lending requires a sound results framework, a credible theory of change, close linking of objectives with policy actions, and outcome-oriented target indicators.

How to support countries that aspire to middle-income status: Lessons from Rwanda

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How to support countries that aspire to middle-income status: Lessons from Rwanda
Insights from evaluation of the World Bank Group's assistance to Rwanda in its journey toward middle-income status.Insights from evaluation of the World Bank Group's assistance to Rwanda in its journey toward middle-income status.

Jamaica Economic Stabilization and Foundations for Growth Development Policy Loan (DPL) (PPAR)

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This Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) reviews the Economic Stabilization and Foundations for Growth Development Policy Loan (DPL), approved on December 12, 2013. The objectives of the operation were to improve (i) the investment climate and competitiveness, and (ii) public financial management for sustainable fiscal consolidation. Objectives were highly relevant to country Show MoreThis Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) reviews the Economic Stabilization and Foundations for Growth Development Policy Loan (DPL), approved on December 12, 2013. The objectives of the operation were to improve (i) the investment climate and competitiveness, and (ii) public financial management for sustainable fiscal consolidation. Objectives were highly relevant to country conditions and the need to avoid fiscal insolvency and begin implementing a comprehensive program of stabilization and reform. They were closely aligned with the World Bank’s strategy and government priorities. The design of the operation was substantially relevant to challenges, with policy priorities identified based on significant analytical work and nonlending technical assistance. The theory of change was convincing, with clear links among inputs, outputs, and expected results, although some indicators could have been more outcome oriented and clearer in their relation to objectives. One shortcoming of the design was the ambitious time frame for the implementation of some of the reforms related to investment climate and pensions, given the limited institutional capacity and a realistic assessment of the time needed for major legal reforms. Achievement of both objectives is rated substantial. Under the investment climate objective, reforms targeted improvements in contract enforcement, approval of building permits, and registration of micro, small, and medium enterprises to encourage their participation in the formal sector. Under the public financial management and fiscal consolidation objective, the program targeted progress on pension reform, tax reform, civil service reform, cash management, and public investment management. The impact of all reform actions was measured relative to specific indicator targets, which were substantially achieved or exceeded. These achievements were confirmed by additional quantitative indicators, qualitative gauges, and international benchmarking data. Some reforms, such as those in investment climate and pension reform, took longer than originally envisioned, but they proceeded and deepened over time. Cumulative evidence suggests that the reforms supported by the operation have been sustained and, in several areas, deepened during the past six years. This is reflected in the new development policy financing series supported by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund Stand-By Arrangement that followed the successful conclusion of the three-year arrangement under the International Monetary Fund’s Extended Funding Facility.

World Bank Group’s Support for Crisis Preparedness: Addressing Fiscal and Financial Sector Vulnerabilities (Approach Paper)

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The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the Bank Group’s support to client countries to enhance their preparedness for exogenous shocks through more systematic ex ante identification of vulnerabilities complemented by support to address these vulnerabilities. The evaluation is focused on the period between FY2010 and FY2018, after the global recession, to evaluate whether the Bank Group had Show MoreThe purpose of this evaluation is to assess the Bank Group’s support to client countries to enhance their preparedness for exogenous shocks through more systematic ex ante identification of vulnerabilities complemented by support to address these vulnerabilities. The evaluation is focused on the period between FY2010 and FY2018, after the global recession, to evaluate whether the Bank Group had integrated lessons from the global crisis. This evaluation aims to inform the design and use of WBG strategies, operations, diagnostics and knowledge products that support crisis preparedness in both low-income and middle-income countries.

IEG Work Program and Budget (FY20) and Indicative Plan (FY21-22)

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To maximize its relevance and value added for the World Bank Group (WBG), IEG will align its work program with WBG strategic priorities. IEG also aims to maintain a clear line of sight with the WBG mission and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as with commitments made in the IBRD and IFC Capital Packages and in the context of IDA replenishments. Furthermore, IEG will keep an Show MoreTo maximize its relevance and value added for the World Bank Group (WBG), IEG will align its work program with WBG strategic priorities. IEG also aims to maintain a clear line of sight with the WBG mission and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as with commitments made in the IBRD and IFC Capital Packages and in the context of IDA replenishments. Furthermore, IEG will keep an increased focus on outcomes, countries, clients, and beneficiaries in its work, and aim to foster a greater outcome orientation throughout the WBG. To achieve this strategic vision, IEG will focus its work program on the key development effectiveness questions that the institution and its clients are most concerned about. For each of these questions, we will strive to answer “why”, “how, “where”, “when”, and “for whom” specific interventions or programs have achieved results or not. By working more closely with operational units and other evaluation initiatives across the WBG, we will seek to significantly enhance IEG’s value added for the Board and WBG management. The work program will be anchored around a series of “streams”, building evidence over time on connected themes and trying to bridge between project, country, sector and strategic impact: Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV), Gender, Maximizing Finance for Development, Human Capital, Climate Change, Growth and Transformation. In addition, IEG will work along an ‘effectiveness’ cross-cutting stream, aimed at examining systemic issues in WBG effectiveness, as well as working towards building a stronger outcome focus for WBG operations and strategies.

Managing Urban Spatial Growth: An evaluation of World Bank support to land administration, planning and development (Approach Paper)

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Managing urban spatial growth matters to reduce poverty and promote shared prosperity. As cities sprawl they become more unequal and inefficient. Land markets enable urban development through private investments in land and assets that guide spatial growth. However, when land management and land use planning are deficient, informal land markets proliferate, fostering the growth of slums and urban Show MoreManaging urban spatial growth matters to reduce poverty and promote shared prosperity. As cities sprawl they become more unequal and inefficient. Land markets enable urban development through private investments in land and assets that guide spatial growth. However, when land management and land use planning are deficient, informal land markets proliferate, fostering the growth of slums and urban sprawl. The World Bank has outlined an agenda for supporting urbanization which frames urban development in the context of a market‐based approach informed by spatial considerations. For over three decades the World Bank has been supporting and strengthening city institutions which manage urban spatial growth through land administration, land use planning and land development. The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the relevance and contribution of WB support to enhance the capacity of clients to manage urban spatial growth through land administration, land use planning and land development. The evaluation will document what works and why; and to draw lessons for future interventions. The evaluation will also assess World Bank support to foster client’s capacity to meet relevant SDG’s as they relate to the management of urban spatial growth including, equal rights over ownership and control (SDG 1.4.2), inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries (SDG 11.3) as outlined in the United Nations New Urban Agenda 2017‐20305. This evaluation complements the forthcoming evaluation Building Urban Resilience: An evaluation of the World Bank Groups Evolving Experience 2007‐2017.