This CPE for Tanzania assessed the relevance and effectiveness of Bank Group support between FY12 and FY22. The Bank Group committed $8 billion to Tanzania during the evaluation period, with investments focused on transport, education, public administration, energy, and social protection. Bank Group support showed flexibility in adapting to the changing policy priorities of the new government in the second strategy period. This CPE includes thematic chapters on Bank Group support to private sector development and to spatial transformation because these were the main areas of support in Tanzania.

During the evaluation period, Bank Group support had mixed success, and IEG rated the overall development outcome of both strategy periods as moderately unsatisfactory. The Bank Group achieved limited progress in improving the business environment and financial intermediation to enhance productivity but contributed to improvements in the provision of energy and road infrastructure and education and health services. World Bank support to public sector reforms did not achieve its objectives because it was unable to overcome weaknesses in capacity and government ownership. IFC showed some success in advisory services, particularly in mobile money development and improvement of the credit reporting system, but IFC investments did not achieve their objectives, particularly in commercial and noncommercial banking, microfinance, and mining.

The Bank Group program adapted to changing government priorities in several sectors, such as access to finance and energy. For example, the Bank Group focused on facilitating access to finance for firms throughout the evaluation period. Yet, in the second strategy period, the changed policy directions of the newly elected government regarding involving the private sector led the World Bank to cancel policy reforms related to secured transactions and energy sector reforms and focus on energy infrastructure investments. As a result of these shifting government priorities, the Bank Group’s implementation in energy and finance deviated slightly from previously stated strategies. After the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of the second strategy period, the World Bank redirected resources toward health care, social safety nets, and emergency response efforts.

The World Bank redesigned an education project to better address a federal policy banning pregnant girls from public schools. After international concerns were raised, the World Bank redesigned an education project to address the gender implications of a federal policy banning pregnant girls from public schools and engaged in a dialogue with the government about the policy. The project was withdrawn from Board approval while a gender assessment was conducted, and a gender component was incorporated in the design. In 2021, the ban was reversed.

Bank Group support to private sector development improved access to electricity and the supply of skilled workers in Tanzania, although access to finance remains a constraint for Tanzanian firms. Bank Group support has helped enhance credit risk assessment and lower transaction costs for commercial banks and has expanded mobile financial services from payments to credits, but the contribution to access to finance for MSMEs and trade finance and capital market development were less successful, while demand-side constraints, such as financial education, were not addressed. The Bank Group’s energy program in Tanzania was appropriate and helped improve access to and quality of electricity for firms, but stronger participation by the private sector in energy generation was hampered by the 2015 government’s growing skepticism toward private sector participation. World Bank support to skills development was relevant and contributed to increased enrollments, improved learning environments, and improved learning outcomes.

World Bank support for spatial transformation was effective in upgrading road networks without contributing to urban sprawl, but the projects implemented master plans for spatial transformation too late, did not adequately account for climate risks, and did not establish geospatial baselines to track results. World Bank support for road rehabilitation in urban areas was effective in reducing travel times, although the full impact of urban and transport investments on spatial transformation cannot be determined because of the lack of an effective monitoring system. Finally, the adoption of a programmatic approach and centralized implementation arrangements of the urban, transport, and land administration were effective, whereas the positive outcomes of the DART system were undermined by the absence of risk-sensitive land-use planning at appraisal.

The evaluation offers the following lessons for consideration, which may be of value to inform future Bank Group support to Tanzania: the need for selectivity in programming, greater simplicity in operation design, robust monitoring and evaluation systems, and better alignment with local capacities and political economy constraints.

Selectivity, combined with simple project designs and a long-term programmatic approach, could help the Bank Group improve its portfolio performance. A scaled-back portfolio with simple project designs that is more tightly focused on government priority areas and aligned with institutional capacity could enhance traction between the government and other partners. The report suggests that filters for selectivity include areas where there is a strong potential for achieving development results, based on the Bank Group’s comparative advantage and the presence of government demand. As in the case of the education sector, government demand can also be fostered by sound analytics and policy dialogue to demonstrate the development justification. The need for simplicity of design is similarly linked to the government’s implementation capacity. The most successful programs were focused on specific objectives, operated at substantial scale, targeted, structured with programmatic approaches, grounded in strong analytical foundations, and implemented with comprehensive quality assurance and control systems. At the same time, efforts to support capacity constraints during implementation were observed only for part of the program.

Maintaining strong partnerships can enable the Bank Group to adapt more efficiently to changing circumstances. The cancellation of projects that supported private sector participation in energy generation and a project aimed at increasing access to finance, on the one hand, and the Bank Group’s successful work with partners and civil society organizations in relation to the pregnancy ban, on the other hand, showed the importance of continuously adapting to the local environment and maintaining partnerships in situations of complex political economy. Indeed, the collaboration with local and international partners (along with analytic work) helped inform the government’s decision to reverse the ban of pregnant girls from education in 2021 and facilitated the approval of the redesigned education project that better addressed the issue.

Better monitoring of growing climate risks, such as risks of flooding, could help avoid expensive remedial actions. As IEG’s review of the DART’s flood vulnerability concluded, the region was at high risk of flooding, which should have been anticipated by using available technology. Similarly, the lack of an adequate monitoring and evaluation system has undermined the World Bank’s ability to learn and adjust to these often-evolving risks. These issues have led to disruptions along DART routes that affected poor populations disproportionately and required additional World Bank financing to resolve. More generally, with increasing climate-related risks, strategies (such as for land-use planning as highlighted above) and operations should reflect the increasing focus on adaptation measures and programmatic approaches to mitigate such risks. Risk mitigation can also be supported by new methods, such as enhanced geospatial analysis.