Highlights

World Bank support focused on the relevant aspects of spatial transformation, such as land-use planning, urban transport, and infrastructure resilience.

The World Bank’s urban road portfolio effectively upgraded the country’s existing road networks and promoted economic development along those roads without contributing to urban sprawl.

The effectiveness of World Bank support for land-use planning has been limited because master plans for managing spatial transformation were often implemented too late, and impacts were not systematically monitored.

The World Bank did not effectively monitor the impact of urban and transport investments on spatial transformation, thereby not adequately understanding land markets as building blocks for local economic development.

Programmatic approaches and implementation arrangements were effective, allowing for seamless coordination among projects and the application of lessons learned in project designs and implementation.

The effectiveness of the Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit system declined because it did not adequately consider climate change–related environmental risks of flooding, leading to service interruptions during rainy seasons.

The purpose of this chapter is to assess the relevance and effectiveness of the World Bank’s efforts in spatial transformation.1 This chapter demonstrates that the World Bank’s support for spatial transformation did not achieve all its objectives because projects implemented master plans for spatial transformation too late and did not adequately account for climate risks related to flooding and establish geospatial baselines to track results. Nevertheless, the World Bank support was increasingly relevant to addressing spatial transformation and effective at upgrading road networks without contributing to urban sprawl. The chapter begins by explaining the challenges to spatial transformation in Tanzania and the World Bank’s strategic approach to it, before looking at the relevance and effectiveness of land-use planning, climate resilience building, and urban transport.

World Bank Group Support to Spatial Transformation in Tanzania

Two reports outlined the challenges to spatial transformation in Tanzania. These reports include Translating Plans to Development: Impact and Effectiveness of Urban Planning in Tanzania Secondary Cities (Huang et al. 2018) and Transforming Tanzania’s Cities: Harnessing Urbanization for Competitiveness, Resilience, and Livability (World Bank 2021e). Taken together, the two analytic reports identified 34 actions in the context of six broad sets of challenges in Tanzania’s spatial transformation, such as (i) low-density development, (ii) urban sprawl, (iii) weak connectivity, (iv) informal land markets, (v) limited resilience to natural disasters, and (vi) livability and lack of sustainable finance. While these reports provide the government of Tanzania with a road map for implementing reforms, they do not provide a clear prioritization on which areas the World Bank should focus.

World Bank operations have increasingly integrated spatial transformation concepts into their designs. Before 2010, the urban and transport operational portfolio did not include explicit reference to spatial transformation, had only limited references to land use, and did not consider spatial transformation in the design of the operations. Since 2010, the World Bank has financed 10 operations that address elements of spatial transformation by supporting actions such as establishing cadaster and land tenure systems, preparing land-use master plans, establishing elements of transport-oriented development, and establishing systems to enhance urban resilience to natural disasters.

IEG developed a results chain of World Bank support for spatial transformation. The results chain aligns World Bank support with challenges and identifies corresponding outputs and outcomes that contribute to pro-poor development through efficient and resilient spatial transformation (table 4.1). The chain identifies the components and relationships among actions required to manage spatial growth. The CPE uses this results chain as a reference on the extent to which the portfolio was relevant and contributed to managing spatial growth. In this context, IEG observes that the transport, urban, and land administration portfolios for Tanzania are increasingly interacting to achieve outputs and outcomes in support of spatial transformation that contribute to pro-poor development through efficient and resilient spatial transformation and land use.

Source: Independent Evaluation Group.

Relevance of World Bank Group Support to Spatial Transformation

Consistent with the 2021 IEG framework on spatial transformation, this CPE assessed the relevance of Bank Group support in this area under three thematic pillars: (i) urban planning, land-use control, and development; (ii) urban resilience; and (iii) urban transport exemplified by the DART system.

World Bank support was highly relevant to Tanzania’s land tenure administration challenges. Given political economy challenges in Tanzania, World Bank support for land tenure administration did not fully materialize until 2021 through the Land Tenure Improvement Project. The project built on the limited support provided by the Private Sector Competitiveness Project, which supported the establishment of the Integrated Land Management Information System and a geodetic reference infrastructure. As outlined in Managing Urban Spatial Growth: World Bank Support to Land Administration, Planning, and Development, improving land tenure and administration is among the first actions that needed to be taken to foster efficient and equitable spatial transformation (World Bank 2021a). In this context, the Land Tenure Improvement Project was highly relevant to address the land tenure challenge at scale. The scope and magnitude of the support were to address a structural constraint in land tenure and had the potential to bring the level of registration in line with regional standards.

During the evaluation period, the relevance of the World Bank’s operational lending on land-use planning increased. Although the current portfolio is relevant to spatial transformation, significant challenges remain, including in the limited population coverage and effectiveness of support to master plans for spatial transformation. IEG’s analysis reveals that the local development program and the Tanzania Strategic Cities Project financed 26 master plans covering a population of 7.3 million persons, representing 48.1 percent of the urban population (excluding Dar es Salaam) and 14.1 percent of local government authorities (councils; table 4.2). The ongoing Tanzania Cities Transforming Infrastructure and Competitiveness Project is supporting the preparation of an additional 19 master plans, increasing the total coverage of the World Bank–financed master plans to 45 cities representing 24 percent of the local government authorities in Tanzania. The Tanzania Cities Transforming Infrastructure and Competitiveness Project master plans are financing economic development and resilience plans.

The relevance of transport-oriented development and spatial transformation increased during the evaluation period. Land-use planning and development was not—until 2017—mainstreamed into the Tanzania urban transport portfolio; therefore, the portfolio was not purposely relevant to foster spatial transformation. The Central Transport Corridor I and II projects did not include land-use development considerations in urban areas. The main challenge was the lack of coordination between investments in transport infrastructure and changes in land use in the immediate and surrounding areas of this infrastructure. The inclusion of support for transport-oriented development to the Dar es Salaam Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system was a corrective action influenced through the Global Lab on Metropolitan Strategic Planning, the report Translating Plans to Development: Impact and Effectiveness of Urban Planning in Tanzania Secondary Cities (Huang et al. 2018), and increased collaboration between urban and transport World Bank staff in the context of the municipal development project.

Source: Independent Evaluation Group.

Note: LGA = local government authority.

The Tanzania Urban Resilience Program was relevant to spatial transformation by building climate resilience. A critical element to foster sustainable spatial transformation was to ensure that risk-sensitive land-use planning was carried out in siting infrastructure. Implemented from July 2016 to January 2023, the program was relevant to spatial transformation by focusing on building local resilience practices through coordinated, strategic action to improve Tanzania’s ability to prepare for, respond to, and adapt to a changing climate, and to withstand and rapidly recover from shocks. More specifically, the program addressed several dimensions of risk management, such as identification, reduction, preparedness, and resilience.

DART was relevant to Dar es Salaam’s spatial transformation needs. Rapid transit systems play a critical role in defining land use and can contribute to efficient and equitable land use. DART was relevant to spatial transformation because it contributed to the mobility and spatial transformation needs of Dar es Salaam and set an example for the rest of Tanzania and Africa. DART is currently the largest BRT system in Africa and is a major metropolitan investment. The World Bank financed the first line and is currently financing lines 3 and 4. The African Development Bank is financing line 2. Line 1 of DART has enabled within-city mobility and the connection to regional buses. For the BRT to address the mobility needs of people, it is also important to ensure that people can easily access the system. As assessed by the CPE team and detailed in box 4.1, the first phase has been progressing through access roads, feeder roads, and the corridor development plan to facilitate access to the BRT.

Effectiveness of World Bank Group Support to Spatial Transformation

This evaluation focused on four aspects of effectiveness: (i) land-use planning and programmatic operational approach, under the thematic area of urban planning, land-use control, and development; (ii) road rehabilitation, under the thematic area of urban resilience; and (iii) DART and urban transport support as a driver of spatial transformation, under the thematic area of urban transport and DART.

Given available data, it was not possible to assess the effectiveness of individual master plans financed by the World Bank. Master plans were prepared late into the operation, and monitoring data were not available. Ideally, plans should have been produced in the early years and then monitored. Yet the review of World Bank advisory services and analytics and project preparation documents, as well as triangulation with interviews, gave the perception of a low level of effectiveness of master plans. In 2022, the appraisal of the Tanzania Cities Transforming Infrastructure and Competitiveness Project asserted that “under past urban projects, plans have been developed but their implementation has been limited” and that “in Tanzania, urban planning instruments have been developed in the past, but their implementation has been limited” (World Bank 2022a, 7). In addition, IEG confirmed that the Ministry of Lands, Housing, and Human Settlements was not systematically monitoring the implementation of master plans financed by the World Bank.

The World Bank’s urban road portfolio consolidated road networks without expanding networks that promoted urban sprawl. As part of the Tanzania Strategic Cities Project and the Urban Local Government Strengthening Program, World Bank support financed more than 400 kilometers of urban roads in secondary cities focusing exclusively on the rehabilitation of roads by principally transforming urban dirt roads to asphalt roads with drains. The projects did not finance any new roads that would have extended the footprint of human settlements. The road investments have been effective in consolidating existing urban extents without promoting urban sprawl. The improved roads have also resulted in reduced travel times because of improved road conditions and smoother traffic. The resulting value of time savings per kilometer per type of vehicle varied from $0.02 per kilometer for cars to $0.41 per kilometer for large buses. The value of time savings is expected to increase when more passengers travel in a vehicle as happens with buses (World Bank 2021e).

The urban road portfolio led to economic development along upgraded roads. There is evidence—albeit limited and not systematic—that World Bank support led to increased land values in areas that benefited from road improvements. These increased land values can represent an important benefit to low-income households but need to be managed carefully to avoid ruinous gentrification. An example of such land appreciation was documented in Babati, where the Urban Local Government Strengthening Program–financed roads led to an increase of land value from T Sh 1,000 per square meter before the program to T Sh 3,500 per square meter after the program. In Iringa, the Urban Local Government Strengthening Program–financed roads, bus terminal, and market led to land value increases in surrounding areas from T Sh 3,000 per square meter to T Sh 5,000 per square meter.

The World Bank’s programmatic approach to improving spatial transformation has been effective. Given implementation challenges in Tanzania, the ability of World Bank support to meet development objectives has relied on a programmatic approach within and across sectors. This approach has established synergies among projects and helped address unforeseen challenges in project implementation through subsequent and related projects.

The long-term engagement of the World Bank was a pragmatic recognition that operational support to an emerging megacity in Africa needed to be sustained over the long term. The series of projects approach in Dar es Salaam through the Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project urban portfolio (two sequential projects) is emblematic of this approach. The series of projects defines ex ante a multiproject phased approach enabling higher objectives executed over a 10- to 15-year time frame. Programmatic lending provided the World Bank with the opportunity to monitor investments financed by prior operations, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, especially for projects with delayed benefit profiles. In addition, the transport portfolio is now working seamlessly with the urban sector, including filling financing gaps, such as the DART corridor development plan. Programmatic lending in transport has allowed the client and the World Bank to learn and make better designs for lines 3 and 4 of the BRT and has also enabled lessons to be incorporated into the Tanzania Cities Transforming Infrastructure and Competitiveness Project and the future Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project 2.

Centralized implementation units have been effective for spatial transformation projects. IEG found that a key aspect contributing to the success of the programmatic approach has been the adoption of a centralized implementation unit for the urban, transport, and land administration projects through the President’s Office Regional Administration and Local Government. The unit provides an effective platform for preparation, implementation, and evaluation of projects breaking sectoral silos and ensuring synergies across projects, as well as an ability to apply lessons learned in the design and implementation of projects.

The World Bank did not monitor the impact of urban and transport investments on spatial transformation. World Bank operations did not establish geospatial baselines and did not carry out systematic evaluations of the impact of urban and transport investments on spatial transformation. The absence of these data limits the ability of the World Bank to fully assess the impact of investments, including investments that may have unintended impacts of promoting deficient urban land-use patterns, which can lead to the formation of slums and environmental degradation. To illustrate, IEG carried out a rapid assessment of spatial transformation impacts of selected investments in cities under the Tanzania Strategic Cities Project, including in Arusha, Dodoma, Kigoma, Kondoa, Mtwara, Mwanza, Tanga, and Unga. Given that the location of most of the World Bank support was in central areas of the cities and towns, only 10 percent of the sampled investments show observable land-use changes. However, when works have been in more dynamic growth areas, spatial transformation was significant and indicative of an active real estate market with potential implications for poor people.2

DART did not consider climate change risks related to flooding during the planning and execution of line 1, undermining the line’s climate resilience. Risks were not identified during the appraisal of the project, and remedial actions are now being supported under the Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project and the Mbassi projects. Dar es Salaam and the BRT area are highly susceptible to flooding, and actions to address this risk could have been better assessed by the World Bank project. Consequently, the BRT users experienced multiple service interruptions during rainy seasons.

DART’s land-use planning was not risk sensitive. Analysis conducted by IEG shows that the BRT phase 1 route is in an area that is topographically flat and has a high degree of imperviousness. Both factors strongly contribute to a high risk of flooding. In figure 4.1, areas in red represent those with a high risk of flooding based on the following two criteria: (i) elevation is lower than 20 meters and (ii) surface imperviousness is greater than 70 percent. This high-risk area covers a surface of 11 square kilometers (approximately 14 percent of the total area). A substantial portion of the BRT route overlaps with the areas where the risk of flooding is greater. (See appendix B for geospatial methodology.)

Historical flood data during the evaluation period reveal that the BRT area suffered from floods during 2012–21, ranging from approximately 1 to 4 square kilometers. The incidence of floods was more pronounced along the eastern portion of the Dar es Salaam BRT, requiring additional World Bank financing to remedy flooding issues along the BRT route. The lack of incorporation of risk-sensitive land-use planning in the BRT design is also problematic from a pro-poor perspective, as disadvantaged communities tended to face greater difficulties to recover from the damage caused by floods (for example, difficulties in finding alternative means of transportation to reach a place of employment and financial difficulties to repair physical damage of property).

Figure 4.1. Effectiveness of the Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit System

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Figure 4.1. Effectiveness of the Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit System

Source: Independent Evaluation Group.

Note: The Bus Rapid Transit phase 1 route is overlaid with areas identified as having a high risk of flooding (depicted in red). This map has been cleared by the World Bank Group cartography unit.