Stable, peaceful, and resilient societies make effective development possible. But, situations of fragility, conflict, and forced displacement have only intensified in the past decade. In 2024, 50 percent of all people facing extreme poverty lived in countries classified as fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) by the World Bank Group. This number is projected to rise close to 60 percent by 2030. The ability of the Bank Group to operate effectively under FCV conditions is, therefore, increasingly critical for advancing its development objectives.
Fragility, Conflict, and Violence and the World Bank Group Approach
The Bank Group launched the 2020-25 Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) Strategy with the aim of strengthening its engagements and operations in countries affected by fragility, violence, and conflict. The strategy aimed to address the drivers and consequences of FCV and to build resilience, especially among the most vulnerable populations. It proposed changes to the Bank Group's operational framework, including in its programming, personnel, partnerships, policies, and financing tools, towards engaging more effectively in FCV contexts.
This evaluation examines the relevance and implementation of the strategy's adjustments to the Bank Group's operational approaches in FCS. It seeks to inform the revised World Bank Group FCV strategy by integrating insights and lessons learned from the 2020-25 strategy. See more in Chapter 1.
The World Bank Group's Engagement in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations
The 2020-25 FCV Strategy was the first to cover the entire Bank Group, and it influenced FCV approaches in other multilateral and bilateral agencies. It was timely, ambitious, and comprehensive, building on the Bank Group's engagement in FCV contexts of more than two decades. It has enabled the Bank Group to advance its engagement with FCV issues even amid heightened global volatility and crises during the past five years.
The strategy, however, lacks a theory of change that links improvements in its operational framework to achieving desired FCV outcomes at the global and country levels. A theory of change would help clarify the underlying assumptions and logic behind the strategy, ensuring that stakeholders have a shared understanding of why certain actions are expected to lead to outcomes.
In addition, the strategy is not supported by an implementation plan detailing actions to be taken and responsibilities for achieving intended outcomes across the Bank Group. This prevents the strategy from being actionable and monitorable and reduces opportunities for learning and adaptive management. See more in Chapter 2.
Financing for Fragile and Conflict-Affected Engagements
The World Bank Group's financing support to FCS countries increased during the evaluation period. However, this increase was driven by the new classification of large borrowers such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Ukraine as FCS since FY20, as well as in part to one-time commitments related to the COVID-19 pandemic response. Targeted support from the IDA FCV Envelope has enhanced financial resources for eligible IDA countries and enabled more structured, milestone-based policy dialogues with countries. However, the growth in FCS financing has not been met with proportionate increases in administrative budgets, which have declined in real terms. Although Country Management Units protected supervision budgets, resources dedicated to project preparation, advisory services and analytics decreased, which could adversely affect the quality of the operations. See more in Chapter 3.
Programming in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations
Country Program Frameworks in FCS have increasingly integrated FCV concerns but need to strengthen links to operational programming through better use of diagnostics, conflict and fragility sensitive portfolios, and FCV indicators. The World Bank's fragility diagnostics (Risk and Resilience Assessments) have improved in quality and timeliness. Gaps remain in linking diagnostics to operational decision-making, addressing sensitive political economy issues and climate risks, and in identifying and tracking FCV indicators. To maximize their impact, diagnostics could focus more on operational recommendations. World Bank lending portfolios showed limited adaptation to FCV issues to help address drivers of fragility and conflict.
In addition, the Bank Group lacks an effective, holistic approach to private sector development, a 'One World Bank' priority, with efforts not achieving the intended impact so far. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) face barriers to scaling up engagement in FCS due to poor business environments, high risks, a lack of bankable projects, and the need to adapt their own business models to FCS contexts and realities. See more in Chapter 4.
Policies for Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations Operations
The FCV Strategy supports operational flexibility in countries classified as FCS through the adaptation of World Bank policies, procedures, and practices. As a result, project preparation times in FCS are similar to those in non-FCS, despite higher risk and complexity in these contexts.
Operational Policy (OP) 7.30 on dealing with de facto governments has helped the World Bank navigate its engagement during irregular power transfers in borrowing countries, but its application is perceived as inconsistent. In countries undergoing recurring or extended political instability, the World Bank identified alternative, successful strategies to remain engaged, including more flexible applications of third-party implementation. See more in Chapter 5.
Operational Partnerships in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations
Over the past 15 years, the Bank Group has deepened its engagement with a wider range of development partners, reflecting a notable shift towards collaborative approaches to addressing FCV challenges. At the operational level, third-party implementation (TPI) - mainly involving United Nations agencies -- has become a key operational modality in FCS. TPI arrangements enabled continued engagement in countries with active crises and conflicts or where direct World Bank implementation of projects with the government is not possible. Most of the third party implemented operations were development focused, and many included institutional capacity-building components. The World Bank, however, needs to improve its practices and guidance to enhance the consistency, transparency, and value-for-money of TPI arrangements. See more in Chapter 6.
Personnel Operating in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations
Attracting the right staff to FCS remains a challenge. The FCV strategy lacked clear staffing principles based on expected outcomes to guide, manage, and adjust the proposed staffing in FCS. While the total number of staff deployed in FCS increased largely due to the redesignation of countries as FCS, there has not been a significant increase in the number of staff willing to deploy to FCS. Staff and management also strongly perceive that the FCV Strategy's commitments to enhance staff incentives and career development have not been met. See more in Chapter 7.
Early Implementation Findings
The performance of World Bank projects in FCS was stable between FY2015-19 and FY2020-25, while ratings of the IFC's investments in FCS have declined significantly. Additionally, country-level evaluations identify several emerging findings and lessons for engaging in FCS: (i) a lack of adaptation of operations to FCV circumstances; (ii) successes in using phased, adaptive approaches that gradually scale up support; (iii) calibration of lending volumes with absorptive capacity; (iv) high risks to sustainability in institution building and service delivery; and (v) weak accountability and learning due to a lack of FCV-relevant results frameworks and indicators. See more in Chapter 8.
The evaluation offers three recommendations to inform the Bank Group's revised strategy for improving its engagements in FCS contexts.
