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The World Bank Group Partnership with the Philippines, 2009–18

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The World Bank Group Partnership with the Philippines, 2009–18 Country Program Evaluation
This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) assesses the development effectiveness of the World Bank Group program in the Philippines between 2009 and 2018.This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) assesses the development effectiveness of the World Bank Group program in the Philippines between 2009 and 2018.

Ukraine: First and Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan (PPAR)

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This Project Performance Assessment Report evaluates a programmatic series of two development policy loans (DPLs) to Ukraine of $500 million each that were provided as part of an urgent international effort to assist the country when Ukraine’s financial sector teetered on the edge of collapse in 2014. A perfect storm had affected the financial system when the geopolitical situation had descended Show MoreThis Project Performance Assessment Report evaluates a programmatic series of two development policy loans (DPLs) to Ukraine of $500 million each that were provided as part of an urgent international effort to assist the country when Ukraine’s financial sector teetered on the edge of collapse in 2014. A perfect storm had affected the financial system when the geopolitical situation had descended into deep crisis arising from the Euromaidan political upheaval, the Russian Federation’s annexation of Crimea, and the armed separatist movement in the eastern part of the country that initiated open, armed conflict that at times resembled a full-scale war. The exchange rate virtually halved between the end of 2013 (Hrv 8.13 to 1 U.S. dollar) and the end of 2014 (Hrv 15.8 to 1 U.S. dollar), inflation accelerated to 24 percent, the public sector fiscal deficit exceeded 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and public debt—including guarantees—spiked to 70 percent of GDP. Ratings for the First and Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan are as follows: Outcome was satisfactory, Risk to development outcome was high, Bank performance was satisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Lessons from the projects include: (i) Close coordination among donors is critical for DPLs to maximize the effectiveness of a jointly designed reform program. (ii) The design of DPLs needs to focus on all relevant issues, potential weaknesses, and gaps in reform measures. (iii) The presence of task teams in the field can be a critical factor in promoting financial sector reform. (iv) Weak public understanding of financial sector reforms indicates a need to expand outreach efforts to enhance political sustainability. (v) Sustainable reform is difficult to achieve in countries that have corrupt power structures and court systems. Under such circumstances, it is an open question whether World Bank assistance risks providing additional resources for rent seeking rather than support for reforms.

Philippines CLR Review FY15-19

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The Philippine economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade. However, performance on poverty reduction, inequality and human development has been persistently low. The country is also a natural disaster hotspot, with frequent typhoons, tropical storms and earthquakes. It has also been affected by internal unrest, predominantly the protracted conflict and violence on the southern island Show MoreThe Philippine economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade. However, performance on poverty reduction, inequality and human development has been persistently low. The country is also a natural disaster hotspot, with frequent typhoons, tropical storms and earthquakes. It has also been affected by internal unrest, predominantly the protracted conflict and violence on the southern island of Mindanao. The 2014 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) was well aligned with the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2011-16 that aimed at reducing poverty and improving the lives of the poorest segments of the population. The subsequent PDP 2017-22 shifted some emphasis to major infrastructure investments – where the WBG has not been particularly active – but also seeks to lift about six million citizens from poverty, achieve upper-middle income status by 2022, and to deliver a comprehensive agenda for peace and development in conflict-affected areas. The WBG program as adjusted in the 2017 PLR was therefore well aligned with significant aspects of the current PDP. The CPS set out a program that was divided in five focus areas: Transparent and Accountable Government; Empowerment of the Poor and the Vulnerable; Rapid, Inclusive and Sustained Economic Growth; Climate Change, Environment, and Disaster Risk Management; and Peace, Institution-Building, and Social and Economic Opportunity – all these areas were of high priority for the country and under the PDP.

Kazakhstan CLR Review FY12-17

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The Republic of Kazakhstan is a land-locked upper middle-income country with a nominal GNI per capita of $7960 in 2017. The country depends on oil, with production and exports of hydrocarbon accounting for 21 percent of GDP and 62 percent of exports in 2017. Average annual GDP growth declined from 6.5 percent during 2006-2011 to 3.6 percent during the CPS period (2012-17), primarily due to Show MoreThe Republic of Kazakhstan is a land-locked upper middle-income country with a nominal GNI per capita of $7960 in 2017. The country depends on oil, with production and exports of hydrocarbon accounting for 21 percent of GDP and 62 percent of exports in 2017. Average annual GDP growth declined from 6.5 percent during 2006-2011 to 3.6 percent during the CPS period (2012-17), primarily due to deteriorating oil prices after 2013. The fall in oil prices reduced the growth of non-oil activities and the associated gains in wages and employment. Per capita GDP grew at 2.1 percent during the CPS period and contributed to reduce the poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line from 5.5 to 2.5 percent of the population between 2011 and 2017. Income distribution improved, with the Gini index falling from 0.28 in 2011 to 0.275 in 2017. The Human Development Index improved from 0.765 in 2010 to 0.800 in 2017. Kazakhstan key development challenges and goals set in the Strategy 2030 and Strategy 2050 include strengthening macroeconomic management (including strengthening of non-oil sources of revenues), reducing the state presence in the economy, strengthening regional economics through infrastructure and agricultural value chains, ensuring equal access to high quality education, enhancing social protection, managing natural resources, policy regarding water resources and improving governance and public sector capacity.

Republic of Congo CLR Review FY13-17

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The Republic of Congo is a lower middle-income country with a GNI per capita (Atlas method in current $) of $1,480 in 2017. Oil production had been the main driver of growth and source of government revenues, with average annual GDP growth of 5.8 percent during 2008-2012. The poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 per day (2011 PPP, percent of population) had been declining, from 50.2 percent in 2005 Show MoreThe Republic of Congo is a lower middle-income country with a GNI per capita (Atlas method in current $) of $1,480 in 2017. Oil production had been the main driver of growth and source of government revenues, with average annual GDP growth of 5.8 percent during 2008-2012. The poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 per day (2011 PPP, percent of population) had been declining, from 50.2 percent in 2005 to 37 percent in 2011. However, poverty reduction occurred mainly in urban areas, with rural areas experiencing an increase in the poverty rate. There was little change in the Gini coefficient between 2005 and 2011. During the CPS period, oil prices dropped, resulting in a decline in average annual GDP growth to 1.4 percent during 2013-2017. The Systematic Country Diagnostic (2018) for the Republic of Congo estimated the poverty rate to have declined further to 35 percent in 2016. The human development index improved from 0.57 in 2012 to 0.61 in 2017. The overarching objectives of the CPS were to promote economic diversification and improve outcomes in public services with three pillars: (i) competitiveness and employment; (ii) vulnerability and resilience; and (iii) capacity building and governance.

Social contracts matter for development: What can the World Bank do about it?

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Social Contracts Matter for Development: What can the World Bank do about it?
Lessons from emerging practices of using Social Contract Diagnostics to shape World Bank Country Engagements. Lessons from emerging practices of using Social Contract Diagnostics to shape World Bank Country Engagements.

Building ownership, consensus, and credibility during economic stabilization: Lessons from Jamaica

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Building ownership, consensus, and credibility during economic stabilization: Lessons from Jamaica
This brief captures the lessons from evaluating a World Bank budget support program implemented in Jamaica—the Economic Stabilization and Foundations for Growth Development Policy Loan (DPL).This brief captures the lessons from evaluating a World Bank budget support program implemented in Jamaica—the Economic Stabilization and Foundations for Growth Development Policy Loan (DPL).

Guatemala: Enhanced Fiscal and Financial Management for Greater Opportunities DPL Series (PPAR)

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This Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) evaluates a series of two development policy loans (DPLs) to Guatemala: Fiscal Space for Greater Opportunities ($200 million, P131763), and Enhanced Fiscal and Financial Management for Greater Opportunities ($340 million, P133738). The assessment aims to verify whether the operation achieved its intended outcomes, to understand what worked well Show MoreThis Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) evaluates a series of two development policy loans (DPLs) to Guatemala: Fiscal Space for Greater Opportunities ($200 million, P131763), and Enhanced Fiscal and Financial Management for Greater Opportunities ($340 million, P133738). The assessment aims to verify whether the operation achieved its intended outcomes, to understand what worked well and what did not, and to draw lessons for the future. The objectives of the series were to (i) strengthen tax administration and tax policy, (ii) strengthen budget management and increase the results orientation of public spending, and (iii) improve the management and coordination of social policies. Ratings are as follows: Outcome was moderately satisfactory, Risk to development outcome was high, Bank performance was moderately unsatisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately unsatisfactory. This Project Performance Assessment Report offers the following lessons: (i) Tax administration and tax policy reforms in the face of major governance issues and long-standing opposition from influential interest groups are unlikely to be successful, even if backed by the World Bank’s analytical support, policy dialogue, and financing. Under these conditions, directly and indirectly targeting the governance issues over a longer period is necessary. (ii) Achieving progress on results budgeting requires strengthening of capacity, political commitment, sound monitoring and evaluation indicators, and cross-agency collaboration. (iii) Achieving results in policy lending requires a sound results framework, a credible theory of change, close linking of objectives with policy actions, and outcome-oriented target indicators.

Timor-Leste CLR Review FY13-19

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This review of the Timor-Leste’s Completion and Learning Review (CLR) of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) covers the original CPS period (FY13-FY17), and the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) of 2016. The PLR extended the original CPS period by one year to FY18 in order to synchronize the CPS strategy with the country’s political cycle. Timor-Leste is a lower Show MoreThis review of the Timor-Leste’s Completion and Learning Review (CLR) of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) covers the original CPS period (FY13-FY17), and the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) of 2016. The PLR extended the original CPS period by one year to FY18 in order to synchronize the CPS strategy with the country’s political cycle. Timor-Leste is a lower middle-income country, with an oil dependent economy. With oil reserves running low, the key challenges facing Timor-Leste are to achieve greater economic diversification and diminish reliance on public sector spending. At the beginning of the CPS period, the political environment was stable and oil prices high. The country was affected by a significant fall in oil prices that started in 2013, and political uncertainty adversely affected economic activity in 2017 and for most of 2018, as public expenditures fell by over one third. On the whole, growth was modest compared to East-Asia Pacific region peers, reflecting both the fall in oil prices and the political uncertainty towards the end of the program period.

How to support countries that aspire to middle-income status: Lessons from Rwanda

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How to support countries that aspire to middle-income status: Lessons from Rwanda
Insights from evaluation of the World Bank Group's assistance to Rwanda in its journey toward middle-income status.Insights from evaluation of the World Bank Group's assistance to Rwanda in its journey toward middle-income status.