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Topic:Fragile States, Conflict, & Violence
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IEG Work Program and Budget (FY20) and Indicative Plan (FY21-22)

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To maximize its relevance and value added for the World Bank Group (WBG), IEG will align its work program with WBG strategic priorities. IEG also aims to maintain a clear line of sight with the WBG mission and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as with commitments made in the IBRD and IFC Capital Packages and in the context of IDA replenishments. Furthermore, IEG will keep an Show MoreTo maximize its relevance and value added for the World Bank Group (WBG), IEG will align its work program with WBG strategic priorities. IEG also aims to maintain a clear line of sight with the WBG mission and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as with commitments made in the IBRD and IFC Capital Packages and in the context of IDA replenishments. Furthermore, IEG will keep an increased focus on outcomes, countries, clients, and beneficiaries in its work, and aim to foster a greater outcome orientation throughout the WBG. To achieve this strategic vision, IEG will focus its work program on the key development effectiveness questions that the institution and its clients are most concerned about. For each of these questions, we will strive to answer “why”, “how, “where”, “when”, and “for whom” specific interventions or programs have achieved results or not. By working more closely with operational units and other evaluation initiatives across the WBG, we will seek to significantly enhance IEG’s value added for the Board and WBG management. The work program will be anchored around a series of “streams”, building evidence over time on connected themes and trying to bridge between project, country, sector and strategic impact: Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV), Gender, Maximizing Finance for Development, Human Capital, Climate Change, Growth and Transformation. In addition, IEG will work along an ‘effectiveness’ cross-cutting stream, aimed at examining systemic issues in WBG effectiveness, as well as working towards building a stronger outcome focus for WBG operations and strategies.

World Bank Group Support in Situations Involving Conflict-Induced Displacement

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World Bank Group Support in Situations Involving Conflict-Induced Displacement
This evaluation assesses the World Bank Group’s approach and support to countries hosting forcibly displaced populations—refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs)—and provides evidence-based lessons to inform the Bank Group’s future role in this area. This evaluation assesses the World Bank Group’s approach and support to countries hosting forcibly displaced populations—refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs)—and provides evidence-based lessons to inform the Bank Group’s future role in this area.

Papua New Guinea CLR Review FY13-18

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This review covers the period of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), FY13-FY16, and updated in the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) dated July 1, 2016. At the PLR stage, the CPS period was extended by two years. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a lower middle-income country with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $2,340 in 2017. Oil and gas extraction has been the main driver of Show MoreThis review covers the period of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), FY13-FY16, and updated in the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) dated July 1, 2016. At the PLR stage, the CPS period was extended by two years. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a lower middle-income country with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $2,340 in 2017. Oil and gas extraction has been the main driver of economic growth. During the CPS period, GDP growth varied considerably, from 0.3 percent in 2018 to 15 percent in 2014, due to volatility in commodity prices and disruption in the operations of three major mining and petroleum projects from a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in 2018. The country’s Human Development Index increased from 0.52 percent in 2010 to 0.544 in 2017, ranking 153rd among 189 countries in 2017. PNG rejoined the WBG’s Harmonized List of Fragile and conflict affected situation Countries (FCS) in FY17 and FY18. This list had excluded PNG since 2011. The World Bank Group’s (WBG) CPS had three pillars (or focus areas): (i) increased and more gender-equitable access to inclusive physical and financial infrastructure, (ii) gender equitable improvements in lives and livelihoods, and (iii) increasingly prudent management of revenues and benefits. IEG rated the CPS development outcome as moderately unsatisfactory, and the WBG performance as fair. The CLR provides three lessons: First, portfolio improvements require sustained engagement by all project teams, implementing agencies, and the Government, as well as stronger interagency coordination. Second, PNG’s institutional and social fragility places a premium on understanding political economy factors with a bearing on projects, and on monitoring and ensuring awareness of grievance redress mechanisms. Third, partnerships can help expand ASA, increase the WBG’s impact, and test new ideas.

Laying the Groundwork for Peace and Development: 5 Lessons from the Republic of Colombia

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Laying the Groundwork for Peace and Development
This brief captures the lessons from evaluating a World Bank's Peace and Development Project, implemented in the Republic of Colombia.This brief captures the lessons from evaluating a World Bank's Peace and Development Project, implemented in the Republic of Colombia.

Recent World Bank Experience with RRAs & Operational Programming in FCV Countries

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Stocktaking of Implementation of Recommendations from IEG Evaluations of Fragility, Conflict and Violence The purpose of this stocktaking report is to assess: i) the extent to which World Bank diagnostic work identified drivers of fragility and conflict and resilience; ii) the extent to which Bank strategies and operations in FCV countries have shifted from generic objectives to targeting drivers Show MoreStocktaking of Implementation of Recommendations from IEG Evaluations of Fragility, Conflict and Violence The purpose of this stocktaking report is to assess: i) the extent to which World Bank diagnostic work identified drivers of fragility and conflict and resilience; ii) the extent to which Bank strategies and operations in FCV countries have shifted from generic objectives to targeting drivers of fragility and conflict; and iii) the experience of the implementation of fragility-sensitive strategies to date.

Azerbaijan: Internally Displaced Persons Economic Development Project (PPAR)

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The well-being of internally displaced persons (IDPs) arose as a significant political and policy concern in the wake of the military conflict between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia. The conflict lasted from 1988 to 1994 when a cease-fire was declared (which continues to this day). The conflict resulted in the occupation of about 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s territory. Some 612,000 people, or Show MoreThe well-being of internally displaced persons (IDPs) arose as a significant political and policy concern in the wake of the military conflict between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia. The conflict lasted from 1988 to 1994 when a cease-fire was declared (which continues to this day). The conflict resulted in the occupation of about 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s territory. Some 612,000 people, or 15 percent of the Azerbaijani population, became internally displaced, making them one of the highest concentrations of IDPs per capita in the world. In addition, some 200,000 ethnic Azerbaijani returned to Azerbaijan from historically Azerbaijan-populated territories in Armenia. IDPs live in scattered communities throughout Azerbaijan; and although some have been able to integrate into mainstream Azerbaijani society, many still live in collective centers (public buildings, dormitories) and temporary shelters where conditions are harsh and amenities, such as access to clean water, adequate sanitation, and electricity are scarcer than among the non-IDP population. IDPs have few income-generating options and are highly dependent on state transfers and subsidies as their main source of income. This Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) evaluates the performance of the Azerbaijan Internally Displaced Persons Economic Development Support Project, a community development fund project, and an additional financing that was added to the IDP-EDS to respond to additional demand for micro-projects. Ratings for the Internally Displaced Persons Economic Development Project are as follows: Outcome is moderately satisfactory, Risk to development outcome is low, Bank performance is moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance is moderately satisfactory. The main lessons to draw from the project assessment are the following: (i) Community micro-projects may not require high levels of community mobilization to be successful. (ii) Well-targeted micro-projects are likely to successfully improve basic living conditions in a community but may not be sufficient to make a difference in terms of creating economic opportunity and reducing poverty. (iii) Pursuing social integration can be a legitimate project objective, but it may require participatory processes that can generate positive spillover effects in the broader community. (iv) When World Bank and government objectives don’t coincide, project outcomes may not be easily achieved and investments can be at risk. (v) Women may be formally present in community committees but may not have a voice.

Bridging the Humanitarian Development Divide: Lessons from an Emergency Food Response in the Central African Republic

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This IEG Project Lesson is based on IEG’s Assessment of the World Bank’s Emergency Food Crisis Response and Agriculture Relaunch Project in the Central African Republic – a program executed by WFP and FAO amidst a protracted security crisis.This IEG Project Lesson is based on IEG’s Assessment of the World Bank’s Emergency Food Crisis Response and Agriculture Relaunch Project in the Central African Republic – a program executed by WFP and FAO amidst a protracted security crisis.

Colombia: Peace and Development Project (PPAR)

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Colombia has experienced internal armed conflict for the last 50 years. The conflict has been waged primarily in rural areas and over control of territory, particularly in regions characterized by weak institutions and, in many cases, corruption and cronyism, impunity, expansion of illicit crop cultivation, and weak civil society links to state institutions owing to lack of opportunities for Show MoreColombia has experienced internal armed conflict for the last 50 years. The conflict has been waged primarily in rural areas and over control of territory, particularly in regions characterized by weak institutions and, in many cases, corruption and cronyism, impunity, expansion of illicit crop cultivation, and weak civil society links to state institutions owing to lack of opportunities for participation (World Bank 2013:1). Over time, the conflict has spawned a complex array of non-state actors who have waged terror as a weapon of war. Specifically, their modus operandi has included systematic large-scale human rights violations, such as public executions, disappearances, massacres, town take-overs, extortions, assassinations, kidnappings, and forced recruitment of children. Against this backdrop of conflict and violence, the World Bank provided support through the Peace and Development Project (PDP) to assist vulnerable, low-income and displaced populations in rural and urban communities in the conflict-affected regions to reduce the risk of their exposure to conflict and mitigate the negative impact of possible derived effects. Ratings for Colombia Peace and Development Project are as follows: Outcome is moderately satisfactory, Risk to development outcome is significant, Bank performance is satisfactory, and Borrower performance is moderately satisfactory. The findings from the performance assessment of the PDP suggest the following lessons: (i) Identifying and supporting activities that create lasting shared interest among community members is a critical building block for generating a community response to conflict. (ii) Having separate but similar activities for IDPs and host communities is not advisable in a CDD project since such separation deters social cohesion via competition for resources. (iii) The support of a respected and neutral third party organization can be key for the successful implementation of a CDD project in a conflict-affected area. (iv) Projects that seek to deter displacement may not necessarily reduce exposure to conflict since displacement can sometimes be the only option for citizens whose lives or livelihoods are severely threatened. (v) Socioeconomic stabilization and a strengthened social fabric can deter preventive displacement but both are insufficient to deter reactive displacement which is driven by direct threats. (vi) Projects with participatory approaches implemented in conflict-affected situations that elevate the role of community members can put them in harm’s way and, for this reason, must include protocols to mitigate the risk of leaders suffering victimization acts.

Guinea CLR Review FY14-17

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This Review of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Completion and Learning Review (CLR) covers the original period of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Guinea (FY14-FY17) and the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) in FY16. Guinea is a low-income country with a GNI per capita of $670 in 2016 and with rich mining and water-based resources. Average annual GDP growth during the 2014-2016 Show MoreThis Review of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Completion and Learning Review (CLR) covers the original period of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Guinea (FY14-FY17) and the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) in FY16. Guinea is a low-income country with a GNI per capita of $670 in 2016 and with rich mining and water-based resources. Average annual GDP growth during the 2014-2016 period (4.6 percent) was marginally lower than during the previous four-year period (4.9 percent). Average growth was sustained despite a slowdown resulting from two major shocks: the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in 2014, which reduced international travel, investments, domestic commerce and services; and the decline in aluminum prices, which reduced Guinea’s bauxite ore export prices and revenues. Despite positive per capita growth, social development made little progress. Poverty rates were 53.0 percent in 2007 and 55.2 percent in 2012, the last year of available poverty estimates. Guinea’s Human Development Index remained flat at 0.4 from 2012 to 2015 and placed the country in the low human development category and ranked 183 out of 188 countries in 2015. Rural social conditions are particularly dire, with rural poverty rates much higher (64.7 percent in 2012) than urban rates (35.4 percent).

Maximizing the Impact of Development Policy Financing in IDA Countries: A Stocktaking of Success Factors and Risks - An IEG Meso Evaluation

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Development policy financing (DPF) has evolved from supporting structural adjustment programs in the 1980s and 1990s to supporting the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in the 2000s. It has been considered by multilateral and bilateral donors as one of the instruments that would best enable the realization of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. However, the use of Show MoreDevelopment policy financing (DPF) has evolved from supporting structural adjustment programs in the 1980s and 1990s to supporting the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in the 2000s. It has been considered by multilateral and bilateral donors as one of the instruments that would best enable the realization of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. However, the use of budget support as a preferred aid modality has been diminishing, especially among European member states. This evaluation is expected to inform decisions on the use of Development Policy Financing (DPF) in IDA countries by providing evaluative insights into drivers of success and risks. This is pertinent in the context of the record replenishment for IDA18 in the face of a declining share of DPF in IDA commitments during the last three IDA cycles. In this context, it is worthwhile to examine the factors that have driven DPF success in the past so as to inform decisions on the role of this development financing instrument in IDA countries going forward.