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Using Evaluation Evidence to Improve the Effectiveness of World Bank Group Involvement in Middle-Income Countries Dealing with Fragility, Conflict, and Violence

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The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), in partnership with the Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Cross-Cutting Solutions Area (FCV CCSA) organized a regional learning event on March 28, 2017, in Manila, the Philippines, to discuss the implications of IEG’s evaluative findings for enhancing the effectiveness of World Bank Group engagement with middle-income countries dealing with situations of Show MoreThe Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), in partnership with the Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Cross-Cutting Solutions Area (FCV CCSA) organized a regional learning event on March 28, 2017, in Manila, the Philippines, to discuss the implications of IEG’s evaluative findings for enhancing the effectiveness of World Bank Group engagement with middle-income countries dealing with situations of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). The event was jointly hosted by the World Bank Group Philippines Country Management Unit and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Close to 80 participants from across the development spectrum attended the workshop (including World Bank Group and ADB staff, government officials, academics, civil society members, and staff from multilateral and bilateral development partners). This note summarizes the discussions and key takeaways from the workshop for the benefit of the broader development community and other stakeholders. It is intended as a starting point for further discussions related to improving the design and implementation of development programs in FCV situations. It concludes with some learning implications to move this agenda forward.

Romania: Development Policy Loan with a Deferred Drawdown Option (PPAR)

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This PPAR evaluates the Romania development policy loan with a deferred drawdown option (DPL-DDO). In the fragile postcrisis global economic context, the government requested the €1 billion loan to consolidate fiscal gains, build fiscal buffers, and accelerate structural reforms to boost a sustainable economic recovery. The loan was approved by the World Bank Board of Executive Directors in June Show MoreThis PPAR evaluates the Romania development policy loan with a deferred drawdown option (DPL-DDO). In the fragile postcrisis global economic context, the government requested the €1 billion loan to consolidate fiscal gains, build fiscal buffers, and accelerate structural reforms to boost a sustainable economic recovery. The loan was approved by the World Bank Board of Executive Directors in June 2012 and closed in October 2014 after full disbursement in two tranches: €700 million in mid-October 2013 and of €300 million at the end of June 2014. The objective of the DPL-DDO was to assist the government in meeting the fiscal sustainability goals defined by the European Union (EU) Fiscal Compact. The reform program aimed to (i) improve tax compliance, revenue collection and fiscal discipline, and reduce administrative costs; (ii) improve governance of energy state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and strengthen their fiscal sustainability; and (iii) improve fiscal sustainability of the health sector. An additional objective of the DPL-DDO, which was not explicitly stated as such in the program document or the loan agreement, was to help augment the government’s fiscal buffer as the undisbursed funds of the loan could count toward it. Ratings for the Development Policy Loan with a Deferred Drawdown Option project are as follows: outcome was moderately satisfactory, risk to development outcome was moderate, World Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Lessons from this project include: (i) The success of difficult institutional reforms in the energy sector underscored strong government commitment, which was strengthened by the liberalization roadmap agreed with the European Commission. (ii) More specifically, tax reforms are key to improving tax collection and reducing the compliance burden for taxpayers and businesses, but are potentially threatening to the status quo, which provides wide discretionary powers and rent-seeking opportunities. (iii) DPL-DDOs can be used as an effective mechanism for crisis support, and for supporting a borrower’s medium-term debt management strategy.

Madagascar CLR Review FY07-13

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This Review covers both Madagascar’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS, FY07-FY11) and Interim Strategy Note (ISN, FY12-FY13). While the CAS was a joint WBG document, the ISN was an IDA only document. The CAS implementation period was truncated due to the unconstitutional change in regime in early 2009 and the subsequent political crisis. Madagascar is a low-income country with a per capita Show MoreThis Review covers both Madagascar’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS, FY07-FY11) and Interim Strategy Note (ISN, FY12-FY13). While the CAS was a joint WBG document, the ISN was an IDA only document. The CAS implementation period was truncated due to the unconstitutional change in regime in early 2009 and the subsequent political crisis. Madagascar is a low-income country with a per capita income of $440 and a population of 22.9 million in 2013. Between 2002 and 2008, the economy grew at an average of 5 percent per year. The country’s GDP contracted sharply by 4.0 percent in 2009. With the annual population growth of 2.8 percent, Madagascar experienced consecutive years of negative GDP growth rates per capita with -6.7% percent in 2009, followed by -2.5 percent in 2010, and -1.4 percent in 2011. Absolute poverty in the country measured by $2 PPP per capita per day, rose from an estimated 88.9 percent in 2001 to 92.7 percent of the population in 2005, then declined slightly, but stayed above the 90 percent mark through 2012. The Gini index for Madagascar was at 40. 6 in 2010 but increased to 42.7 in 2012. IEG rates the overall development outcome of the WBG program as Unsatisfactory.

Nepal: Second Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project (PPAR)

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This Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) reviews the World Bank’s Nepal Second Rural Water Supply and Sanitation (RWSS) Project, a follow-on to the First Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project, which closed in December 2003, at the government’s request. The first project’s overall outcome was rated satisfactory; the project had demonstrated that demand-driven and community-managed Show MoreThis Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) reviews the World Bank’s Nepal Second Rural Water Supply and Sanitation (RWSS) Project, a follow-on to the First Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project, which closed in December 2003, at the government’s request. The first project’s overall outcome was rated satisfactory; the project had demonstrated that demand-driven and community-managed schemes are likely to be more sustainable than supply-driven schemes that are led by the government without extensive community participation. The development objectives of the second project, the subject of this PPAR, were to (i) improve the institutional performance of the rural water supply and sanitation sector and mainstream the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Fund Development Board (Fund Board) approach in the government’s system, and (ii) support communities to form inclusive local water supply and sanitation user groups that could plan, implement, and operate drinking water and sanitation infrastructure to deliver sustainable health, hygiene, and productivity benefits to rural households. Project ratings were as follows: outcome was moderately satisfactory, risk to development outcome was significant, World Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory. Major lessons from the project include: (i) Mainstreaming a community-led approach in a supply-driven government structure is difficult to implement in the absence of a prior agreement with government and continuous advocacy. (ii) Project implementation arrangements that are not linked to institutions that have a legal mandate and parallel institutional structures undermine the sustainability of the project. (iii) Given that women are main stakeholders, placing them at the center of planning and implementation of a community-led rural water supply and sanitation project supports sustainable benefits. (iv) When project sustainability rests on community contribution to the operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, there is a need to prepare and agree on an explicit O&M plan with the community at the project’s development phase. (v) In rural water supply programs aimed at increasing water supply at the village level, it is necessary to make provisions to cater to demand for higher service levels for wastewater management and water quality monitoring.

Panama: Improving Basic Health, Equity, and Opportunities among Indigenous and Poor Rural Communities (PPAR)

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This report assesses the performance of two projects: (i) the Social Protection—Support to the Red de Oportunidades (Social Protection) (P098328) project and (ii) the Health Equity and Performance Improvement (HEPI) (P106445) project. The Social Protection and HEPI projects were approved by the World Bank Board of Directors in July 2007 and in August 2008, respectively. The two projects were Show MoreThis report assesses the performance of two projects: (i) the Social Protection—Support to the Red de Oportunidades (Social Protection) (P098328) project and (ii) the Health Equity and Performance Improvement (HEPI) (P106445) project. The Social Protection and HEPI projects were approved by the World Bank Board of Directors in July 2007 and in August 2008, respectively. The two projects were prepared during the administration of President Martín Torrijos (in office September 1, 2004–July 1, 2009) and implemented during the administration of President Ricardo Martinelli (in office July 1, 2009–July 1, 2014). The Social Protection project was completed in September 2014 and the HEPI project a few months later, in December. The two projects presented a clear vision of supporting human capital and improving maternal and child health outcomes through a joint strategy of incentivizing the use of basic health services through the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, Red de Oportunidades (RO), and of extending the coverage to indigenous and rural communities (Estrategia de Extensión de Cobertura—EEC) through mobile health teams. The two projects also shared similar interventions and activities: (i) both projects financed the EEC, (ii) both projects envisaged the implementation of impact evaluations, and (iii) both projects aimed at improving the government’s capacity to design, implement, and monitor coherent and efficient sector policies. The project’s outcome rating is Moderately Satisfactory.

World Bank Group Joint Projects: A Review of Two Decades of Experience

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World Bank Group Joint Projects: A Review of Two Decades of Experience
This first systematic stocktaking by IEG of joint or co-financed projects within the World Bank Group offers insight on both benefits of, and challenges in, developing, structuring, supervising, monitoring and evaluating joint projects. It draws lessons from past experience, staff and client feedback, and highlights implications for WBG management regarding expectations of increased co-financed Show MoreThis first systematic stocktaking by IEG of joint or co-financed projects within the World Bank Group offers insight on both benefits of, and challenges in, developing, structuring, supervising, monitoring and evaluating joint projects. It draws lessons from past experience, staff and client feedback, and highlights implications for WBG management regarding expectations of increased co-financed projects in the future.

Ethiopia CLR Review FY13-16

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of US$590 (current US$) in 2015. Its economy grew by 9.6 percent annually in real terms during the review period, faster than the Sub-Saharan Africa average (4.0 percent) and the rest of the world (2.6 percent), albeit the growth rate slowed to 6-7 percent in 2015-16 owing to a severe drought. The poverty headcount indicates that 33 percent of the population lived below the international poverty Show Moreof US$590 (current US$) in 2015. Its economy grew by 9.6 percent annually in real terms during the review period, faster than the Sub-Saharan Africa average (4.0 percent) and the rest of the world (2.6 percent), albeit the growth rate slowed to 6-7 percent in 2015-16 owing to a severe drought. The poverty headcount indicates that 33 percent of the population lived below the international poverty line of US$1.90 PPP per day in 2011. Ethiopia is among the most equal countries in the world. Inequality—with a Gini coefficient of 0.33—is low by international and Sub- Saharan Africa standards, and comparable with some OECD countries. Ethiopia made good progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) particularly in gender parity in primary education, child mortality, HIV/AIDS, and malaria. The country’s HDI ranking remained broadly at the same level between 2012 (173 out of 187) and 2015 (174 out of 187). Political stability prevailed during the review period, notwithstanding the initial uncertainty created by a change in leadership with the death of the long-serving Prime Minister. IEG rates the overall development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory.

Republic of Croatia: Agriculture Pollution Control Project (PPAR)

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The Danube River Basin is one of Europe’s largest cross-boundary river catchment areas, draining large parts of central and southeastern Europe before flowing into the Black Sea. Pollution of the Danube River and the Black Sea is a serious problem given the high volume of nutrients in these water bodies. To address pollution and support Croatia’s preparation for EU accession, the Global Show MoreThe Danube River Basin is one of Europe’s largest cross-boundary river catchment areas, draining large parts of central and southeastern Europe before flowing into the Black Sea. Pollution of the Danube River and the Black Sea is a serious problem given the high volume of nutrients in these water bodies. To address pollution and support Croatia’s preparation for EU accession, the Global Environment Facility provided a $5 million grant fund to the government of Croatia for the Agricultural Pollution Control Project (APCP), implemented with the World Bank. The APCP’s objective was “to significantly increase the use of environmentally friendly agricultural practices by farmers in the Recipient’s Danube River basin in order to reduce nutrient discharge from agricultural sources to surface and groundwater bodies.” The World Bank Board approved the project in December 2007, and the project completed as planned in July 2012. This report assessed the project’s performance. Overall, the ratings for relevance, efficacy, and efficiency result in an Outcome rating of moderately satisfactory. The performance assessment of the APCP experience suggests the following lessons, grouped under three interrelated categories: (i) Achieving long-term behavior change, (ii) Adequate implementation, and (iii) Client commitment and incentives.

IEG Work Program and Budget (FY18) and Indicative Plan (FY19-20)

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IEG’s strategic directions for FY18–20 have been defined to maximize alignment with the key strategic priorities of the World Bank Group and the main development challenges expected to affect its clients over that period. Internally, the development of a Forward Look, new agreements under the IDA18 replenishment, a new IFC Strategy, and continuous efforts to modernize the institution are guiding Show MoreIEG’s strategic directions for FY18–20 have been defined to maximize alignment with the key strategic priorities of the World Bank Group and the main development challenges expected to affect its clients over that period. Internally, the development of a Forward Look, new agreements under the IDA18 replenishment, a new IFC Strategy, and continuous efforts to modernize the institution are guiding the World Bank Group’s strategic directions. Externally, the global community has endorsed ambitious post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but headwinds across the globe, and a combination of long-term trends, cyclical factors, and disruptions will also influence the development agenda. Against this backdrop, IEG’s work program has been designed to help the World Bank Group enhance its development impact and better address the most relevant development challenges faced by its clients.

Ukraine CLR Review FY12-16

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Ukraine is a lower middle income country with a GNI per capita of $2,640 in 2015. Leading up to the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) period, poverty had been declining, with the share of the population below the $5 poverty line decreasing from 46 percent in 2002 to 3.2 percent in 2013, and a GINI index lower than those of peer countries in the ECA region in 2014. During the CPS period, Ukraine Show MoreUkraine is a lower middle income country with a GNI per capita of $2,640 in 2015. Leading up to the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) period, poverty had been declining, with the share of the population below the $5 poverty line decreasing from 46 percent in 2002 to 3.2 percent in 2013, and a GINI index lower than those of peer countries in the ECA region in 2014. During the CPS period, Ukraine experienced almost zero growth during 2012-2013 and negative real GDP growth of -6.6 percent in 2014 and -9.9 percent in 2015. Following the Euromaidan demonstration and subsequent political events, a new Government took over in late 2014 and faced several challenges, including maintaining macroeconomic stability and managing a banking crisis. With higher unemployment and a compression of public expenditures, Ukraine experienced increases in poverty rates with the share of the population below the $5 poverty line increasing to 3.3 percent in 2014 and 5.8 percent in 2015. While the economy has stabilized, Ukraine would have to address long-standing structural, governance and anti-corruption issues to achieve sustained growth and shared prosperity. During the CPS period, Ukraine’s ranking in the Worldwide Governance Indicator (WBI) for Control of Corruption deteriorated from 17th percentile in 2011 to 15th percentile in 2014, while the ranking in the Human Development Index has remained at 83rd-84th. IEG rates development outcomes of the CPS as Moderately Unsatisfactory while Focus Area II is rated as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the six CPS objectives, three are rated as Mostly Achieved and three are rated as Partially Achieved. The overall rating takes into account the strength of the evidence in the objectives that were rated Mostly Achieved and the lack of verifiable information in one objective that resulted in its Partially Achieved rating.